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Good morning.

I’m a bit groggy this morning as I woke up in the middle of the night, thinking about some topic that I was sure to be quite fascinating … and thought through about how I would exactly word it in my text today.  This morning finds me racking my brain trying to remember just what the heck it was that I mentally composed at 4 AM, as I am convinced it was both wonderful and quite insightful.  Getting older is not a lot of fun.

Investors are also not having a lot of fun this morning as U.S. indexes are down once again, even in the face of a report that showed wholesale inflation dropped much more than anticipated.  The caveat here is retail sales also dropped … and CNBC reports Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics feels “… consumption growth is set to slow significantly in the first quarter.”

While you might think a drop in prices would result in greater sales, it is possible that quite a few are worried about their jobs … as layoffs seem to have started (especially in the tech sector) … and are not feeling confident enough to make any large purchases.

This could, of course, affect corporate earnings and Capital Economics (feeling forecasts already to be too high) gives the impression that we might “retest October’s lows” for the S&P … which would be a drop of over 11% from last night’s close … stating the view that “expectations for earnings seem inconsistent with even the mild U.S. recession we envision.”

Meanwhile, another worry among some investors is the annual game regarding the debt ceiling … as politicians try mightily to figure out which position to promote that would provide the best soundbites for their reelection campaigns before agreeing to add to our national debt … allowing them to claim victory, frugality, and great stewardship.

I also made sure to include yet another article on “AI” (artificial intelligence), which tells us “robot doctors” could well be on the way. But I would not be too quick in accepting this … just as I would not put all my faith in what I read on Google … as, so far, there are many examples where AI has made errors.  Give it time … a lot of time.  And call me in the morning.

On a final note for today a few asked me about the annual “Emerald Groundhog Day Event” and I am happy to share that it will be taking place in King of Prussia, about 15 miles northwest of Philadelphia … and quite close to our “KoP” office.

More information and registration for this very popular event can be found via our website of www.teamemerald.com … and, along with company presentations, you will enjoy topics and views from our Portfolio Managers and Analysts on important investment themes of the day.

That about wraps it up for now as I’ll spend the next hour trying to remember just what I was so excited about last night so I can include it tomorrow.

Wish me luck.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Vice President
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
cell: (856) 625-7915
wit@teamemerald.com
 #vaccinatetosave

 

A Look At The News | January 19, 2023

As of 10:10 AM today …

Wholesale prices fell much more than expected in December … leading some to wonder if Fed rate increases will soon be halted in the attempt to thwart inflation (CNBC)

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/wholesale-prices-fell-0point5percent-in-december-much-more-than-expected.html

… but one thing that could cause concern will be the fight in raising the debt limit … in light of the U.S. continuing to borrow to fund programs (some of which might be questionable) (Fortune)

https://fortune.com/2023/01/18/how-bad-us-fails-raise-debt-limit-default-janet-yellen/

It is shown that pet ownership may provide a degree of cognitive benefit for the elderly … though further study is needed (as taking care of some pets could be a challenge (TheAlzheimersSite)

https://blog.thealzheimerssite.greatergood.com/pet-ownership-cognitive-benefit-study/

Fortunately, I have never been bumped from a flight … but it would be wise if I was prepared for what my rights are and how to receive the biggest amount of compensation (LifeHacker)

https://lifehacker.com/how-to-get-the-most-money-when-you-re-bumped-from-a-fli-1849985286

It was only a matter of time.  Now that Artificial Intelligence (“AI”) is all the rage, new uses are being touted … including having “robot doctors” available (Axios)

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/18/chatgpt-ai-health-care-doctors

… but s problem with trusting AI for medical (or other) advice?  Errors … as in this early stage of use, a few errors are being discovered.  Imagine if this was an erroneous medical opinion? (MSN)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/a-news-site-used-ai-to-write-articles-it-was-a-journalistic-disaster/ar-AA16s6lC

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The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.