Good morning:.
Stocks are relatively flat this morning as there is little change in the major indices … but it remains to be seen if this is the calm before the storm as we begin a two-month period that has, historically, not been overly kind to investors. Even so, we are often reminded that the stock market doesn’t own a calendar, and anyone who moved to the sidelines during the 2025 August-September timeframe would have been sadly disappointed.
Trying to review this led me … as it often does … to data published on the AJOVista website (an Emerald company) that shows historical returns of different indices going back as far as 50 years.
What caught my eye for 2026 is that I know how well the S&P has been doing through the end of July … but it really pointed out how well small cap stocks have done, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index. In discussions with friends, the S&P often comes up (“I’ll just put my money in the S&P Index”) but I obnoxiously remind them there is so much more … and other asset classes, including international along with emerging markets, should be considered. Okay, I’ve kicked that horse long enough and so I’ll move on.
Treasury Secretary Bessent recently claimed that the famed “K-economy” is over … and there is no longer a widening of the economic gap. I loudly claim “nonsense” on that statement.
Sure, after-tax age growth has improved for those on the lower end of income distribution (as pointed out by Daily Shot), but do we really believe that “trickle-down economics” … as taught in grad school … has helped as much as the academics envisioned it would? I did include one article today and apologize that it was written by a politician … but it did address the topic.
I am a little concerned … but no longer puzzled … by the election of candidates touting more socialistic platforms. It seems people are getting angered over this widening economic gap … and want to try whatever they can to get the “trickle-down” claims to actually trickle down for it seems it is “trickling up” at a quickening pace.
On a final note, there is one item forecasted by Clearview that is presented in Daily Shot and that is “the number of data centers is poised to explode.”
We do know the local issues with AI data centers. We read about the protests, and we see the yard signs … but I am afraid this will all be for naught.
They are coming … and coming fast.
.. I only wonder just how prepared we really are
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
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