| Good afternoon:.
Markets seem to be in a holding pattern right now … straddling the line between positive and negative numbers … as the world awaits concrete news on the war with Iran. I use the word “concrete’ on purpose … as it seems that every day, we are met with reports of hope … only to find out there is still a bit of work to do before things are resolved.
But maybe things are turning around … after all, oil prices are down today, and AAA is reporting the national average gas price has dropped around 3 cents overnight and around 10 cents in the last week. Sure … baby steps … but moving in the right direction.
Yesterday I mentioned the University of Michigan Survey which showed a decline in consumer confidence and a friend contacted me and said it was politically biased. Frankly, I’m not so sure as other reports/surveys from Conference Board, Morning Consult and RCM/TPP also showed a drop in sentiment. Still, the statement does seem to have some validity as the political split certainly exists depending on who is in office. Further, you really do have to question those who claim to be “independent” when answering surveys … as Gallup reported as recently as 2025 that 45% of Americans say they are independent … with a slight majority of these having Democratic leanings. So … interesting? Surely. Unbiased? Um … maybe not so much.
One area where differences appear is with forecasts … as the much-followed Atlanta GDPNow gives the view that Q2 GDP will be around 4% … while Patheon Macroeconomics comes in much lower at 1.5%.
But still … as they say … growth is growth … and Goldman Sachs seems to agree as they raised the S&P target to 8,000 by year’s end … slightly more than 7% above where we are today once dividends are considered.
Probably the most interesting note (included below) that I read this morning is a report that Jason Kelce is blasting the NFL which is moving many games away from being played on Sunday.
And, in my view, he has a point.
Sunday is no longer sacred in the eyes of the NFL as 75 games … 20% … will be played on “other” days this year with Tuesday the only football holiday.
This is unfortunate … as now we need to figure out who plays on what day … in addition to trying to discover what streaming channel the profit-seeking NFL has aligned itself with for the game you would like to watch.
Sundays in the U.S used to consist of two major things … church … and football.
It was even forgiven (by God and church goers) that kids would show up to mass wearing jerseys from their favorite teams
.
Of course, the exception is the Jets
….. for even little kids don’t like public embarrassment
… even in a place where sins are forgiven.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
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