Good afternoon:.

Well … the situation in Iran is still dominating headlines as CNBC is reporting that the head of the International Energy Agency (“IEA”) classified oil markets as possibly entering a “red zone” in July as reserves deplete.  What helped up to now was oil inventory entered Iran War with a surplus but the closing of the Strait alongside the blockade is causing this to rapidly disappear.

Meanwhile, comments in the news about a war resolution “any time now” appears to be taken less seriously as Reuters reports Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei insists uranium must remain in Iran … contrary to President Trump one month ago telling news channels that Iran will work with the U.S. to remove it … so we’ll see where this goes.

Following this claim, oil prices jumped around 3% while it is too soon to see if there is any effect on gasoline prices.

And yes, gas prices are important … as it is something Americans notice every day … and with the increase of $1.38/gallon over what we faced last Memorial Day … it seems to be making people a bit less comfortable  I mean, let’s get serious … people screamed about the effect on affordability when the price of eggs rose by 35 cents each.  Gasoline … which a lot of people must buy … has a much greater effect on family budgets.

Stocks, meanwhile, headed south upon the uranium news but the S&P has not moved too far away from its all-time high and is still only about a percent and a half below its record level.

The issue now is two-fold … as investors focus on both the economy … which still seems to be holding up even amid some widening cracks … and the Fed … which may be challenged in coming meetings as the possibility of a rate hike looms.

Meanwhile a warning of a different note went out as Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s, raised the chance of recession to 40% … which is quite uncomfortable considering his firm’s focus on credit markets and defaults.

That about wraps it up for me today … though I notice something interesting that happened at Harvard University.

It seems that there has been a bit of “grade inflation” … as 60% of students receive the coveted grade of “A” … and many Harvard faculty members felt it has gotten a bit out of hand.  Finding the need to make the “excellent” designation more meaningful they have elected to reduce the number of A’s handed out to around 20%.

A high score is … after all … quite an accomplishment, and I’ll never forget the excitement that overcame my roommate when he realized the one semester when we both had a 4.0 … even though we both had a bit of trouble attending classes amid our extracurricular activities.

But, nevertheless, we did end up with a 4.0

… as he had a 1.8 and I had a 2.2

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | May 21, 2026 As of 10:24 AM today …   Moody’s is an organization famous for its focus on credit ratings. Its chief economist feels the probability of a U.S. recession is rising (FoxBusiness) https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/top-economist-sounds-alarm-americas-40-recession-risk-warns-stocks-disconnected-from-reality   … and one of the reasons is the Fed … as inflation growth continues to be above the 2% level of comfort and some think a rate boost by the Fed could be in the cards (FoxBusiness) https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/high-energy-prices-risk-keeping-inflation-above-2-target-concerning-fed-policymakers   Airlines charge extra for heavy bags, and this does make a bit of sense as every additional pound raises fuel costs … so should they also charge flyers based on weight? (TheWorldinMyPocket) https://www.theworldinmypocket.co.uk/should-you-pay-more-to-fly-because-of-how-much-you-weigh/   As we head into summer some will, no doubt, spend a lot of time outdoors … but be prepared to defend yourself for, after all, it is tick season (USAToday) https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2026/05/17/tick-bites-emergency-room-maps-where/89991884007/   Pay a financial advisor or use AI?  A big difference is that one of them can certainly be trusted to keep your information confidential (TheStreet) https://www.thestreet.com/personal-finance/chatgpt-financial-advisor-integrates-account-management-tools   Students at Harvard might have been bragging about getting top grades, but this might slow down a bit as scores for exceptional work will only be given for …  … um … exceptional work (WGBH) https://www.wgbh.org/news/local/2026-05-20/harvard-limits-number-of-students-who-get-a-grades The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.