Good afternoon:. Stocks are taking it on the chin this morning with all major indices down by around one percent as the summit ended in China with no earth-shattering news. In fact, FactSet classified the meeting as resulting in a “lack of deliverables,” though you can be sure that not every discussion was intended for public viewing and critique. Inflation fear also seems to be making an entrance as CNBC reports that a few top economists give the view that inflation could top 6% over the next 6 weeks … which would result in a great deal of concern for … if this occurred … the Fed might start thinking about raising rates … something no one wants to see. On a related worrisome front, the yield on the 30-year Treasury is above 5%, at levels not seen in almost twenty years. Still, Secretary Bessent stated “there’s been a global backup in bond yields as markets are pricing in, perhaps, inflation – a short-term blip in inflation – that I believe is transient.” We can only hope he is right … as the concern over inflation is certainly high … and many wish he did not use the word “transient” … remembering the Fed’s misguided “transitory” statement of the past. Politicians do realize that the price of gas, now above $4.50 nationally (up from $3.20 one year ago, according to AAA) is putting a strain on many … and the EPA is allowing the sale of gas injected with 15% ethanol to be sold to help keep prices a little lower than they might be. Still, the ethanol inclusion might have some issues … not only from an environmental standpoint (uncertain) but also could damage older engines. But it is the present price that has people presently concerned … and its inclusion should help in that regard. I’ve been reviewing a lot of AI stuff this morning … resulting in a writing delay … as I am actually taking a college course to try to understand it all a bit better … not only for my own use but to better understand how its rapid advancement can influence the economy. Interestingly I came across a view supplied by Banc of America claiming the International Labor Organization feels tasks associated with ¼ of jobs will be supported (or taken over) by AI. Personally, I feel the number is much higher … as improvements are happening on what seems to be a daily basis. Sorry it is afternoon as I tried to get my note out earlier, but the many AI items put me on a detour. Meanwhile I did find an article of major importance to share … as spring and summer temperatures start sneaking in. Many times, in my life, I have gone to a picnic … or the beach … bringing cans of cold beer … only to have them warm up … and then leaving me with the view that they needed to be (sob) discarded. I wish I came across today’s last article sooner… as studies show this not to be a problem … just put ‘em back on ice and things will be fine. As many of us know during the summer months, there is nothing like a good cold beer. It isn’t just for breakfast anymore. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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