Good morning.

The game of chicken continues in Iran with competing claims heightening the drama.

On the one hand, CNBC reports the President’s claim that the “… blockade would cause Iran’s oil industry to ‘explode’ this week,” while the same report provides analyst assessment that “Iran has enough oil storage to buy it at least a month and maybe longer.”

It appears that something has to give … and under concern oil prices will continue to rise as the blockade continues, some feel the U.S. might be forced into more aggressive action than has been seen so far in the attempt to close this chapter.

While this has more greatly affected other economies, the U.S. economic engine appears to be chugging along … but possibly slowing … as GDP growth was positive, but trailed consensus, and core inflation showed a 12-month rate of 3.2% … well above the claimed Fed target of 2%.

Meanwhile, the Fed will likely be under new leadership in a few weeks … but the new chair (Kevin Warsh) will not have an easy time of it as present-chair Powell will remain as a governor, to finish out his term, and there is growing dissent already in the ranks … as the vote this week (one voting to cut and three not agreeing with the “easing” language) showed the highest number of disagreements since 1992.

And how are investors behaving at the moment?  While AI-related stocks are choppy (with Meta taking a hit due to concerns over AI overspending), all three major indexes are positive just before the noon hour.

On a final note for today, I found comments by Jamie Dimon interesting (per last article below) as he warns that comfort with the bond markets might be misguided and suggests that a bond crisis might take place at some time, though does not appear imminent.

What he pointed to was how quickly the UK gilt market (their equivalent of our treasuries) deteriorated in 2022, and a sharp spike in rates required the Bank of England to quickly intervene … for, in our case, we would count on the Fed.

He is not saying it will certainly happen here … but it could … as there are some similarities in structure between the gilt and U.S. treasuries … and he just wants us to realize this.

I guess you could call it gilt by association.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | April 30, 2026 As of 11:48 AM today … The good news is that the U.S. economy continues to grow … thought there is concern that quite a headwind exists due to the continuing situation with Iran (APNews) https://apnews.com/article/gdp-economic-growth-inflation-iran-2e09bd656cd8ad1f9999c3cb7aac75e1   … while the typical American consumer notices one thing … gas prices … and one CEO shockingly declares the higher costs might be with us for quite some time (TheStreet) https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/shell-ceo-issues-stark-warning-that-could-hit-drivers-at-the-pump   … still, others are not concerned so much about oil … as alternatives start to be considered … but another liquid brings concern … fresh water … as a hot summer might lie ahead (Wired) https://www.wired.com/story/the-summer-the-american-water-crisis-turned-real/   One of the big lessons being taught to young adults is that by buying unnecessary items early in your working career could result in future discomfort (Kiplinger) https://www.kiplinger.com/retirement/social-security/the-wait-to-win-rule-of-retirement-spending   Hold onto your wallets!  Transportation secretary Sean Duffy sees the need to improve air traffic control and calls for yet another fee to be added to your flight cost (TheTravel) https://www.thetravel.com/us-transportation-secretary-sean-duffy-proposes-passenger-funded-atc-fee/   Many feel there is safety in bonds … but Jamie Dimon warns that governments need to recall the UK gilt issue of 2022 and advises putting up some guardrails (TheStreet) https://www.thestreet.com/investing/jpmorgan-ceo-has-an-urgent-message-for-bond-market-investors-jamie-dimon   The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.