Good morning. Stocks are up this morning following the announcement of an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, but this time there is no specific deadline other than the end date being when we see the “discussion concluded” … leaving much to the imagination. Frankly, this appears to be a smart move … having no specific deadline … especially considering reporters writing that we are at day 53 in something that was originally stated to last no longer than 35 days (“5 weeks”) so the administration has now taken the “but you said” weapon away from the press. While the situation with oil remains problematic, Deutsche Bank was quick to point out this is not the same as oil spikes in either 2022 or even in the 1970s as economic expansion is still evident today. And while the much-followed Atlanta GDPNow report shows GDP slowing, it is still positive even as Barrons announces negative effects on GDP resulting from a related rise in gas prices alone (which remains above $4/gallon). I saw a very interesting item this morning shared by Daily Shot and will certainly use it in future presentations … as Creative Planning put out a chart showing 29% of the U.S. shareholder lifetime wealth created over the last 100 years came from only 10 stocks (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, Exxon Mobile, Meta, Tesla and Wal-Mart). What does this indicate? Each of these (with the possible exception of Exxon) was disruptive in some capacity and if identified early provided very good returns. This is where good analysts really excel, and I’m glad to know a few that I put in that camp. I also saw that the UK is trying to pass a law that no one born after 2008 will be able to buy tobacco in the UK … and they will not be moving this up as the child ages. Sure, there are a few exceptions and there will be some backlash (and cheating) … but at least rising healthcare costs are being addressed, and it is expected the U.S. … and others … might consider similar moves if this UK experiment works. That’ll about wrap it up for me today as I was going to hit some golf balls this afternoon but it, unexpectedly, started to rain … dampening both the ground and my mood. Meanwhile, I see the government announced possible support for Spirit Airlines, whose stock jumped. So, let’s see … the stock traded over half a million shares each of the three days leading up to the announcement and 4 million shares yesterday, far more than the normal day. I thought I’d make a good living being in finance, but in hindsight … … I should have been a politician. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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