Good morning. Investors had become quite hopeful over the last few days that the U.S. was planning to announce a military de-escalation in the Mideast … and expected this to be the main focus of the President’s speech last night. Many were disappointed if you viewed the futures market as the test … as stocks immediately moved sharply downward once it became clear that attacks would continue with the statement of the plan “… to bring them back to the Stone Ages” over the next few weeks. One of the issues pointed out by analysts is that it is not only the price of “regular” gasoline that has jumped, but AAA is reporting diesel is nearing all-time highs last seen in 2022 … which certainly affects delivery vehicles. And jet fuel? Oh my. According to CNN the increase is a jump of 88% in the U.S. since the start of the war … while in gas-starved Asia the price is up 134% … and these numbers were quoted before last night’s speech and the immediate jump in oil. A separate but related concern has to do with a stagnant U.S. economy even in the face of rising inflation … a worrisome situation known as “stagflation.” While rising oil-related costs are a worry, so is the employment situation … as executive outsource firm, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, reports U.S. employment is now facing a scenario of increasing job cuts as AI replaces a growing number of workers. Just one more point for today as I am not in a pleasant mood as it is. I learned last night that a good friend made the difficult, but understandable, decision to stop chemo and upon reading his note to me everything else … the market … Iran … the Mets … and even my golf game … suddenly seemed of little importance. While he no doubt wants to be with his family, I did make the offer to fly to Copenhagen for a day because every time I think about friends no longer here, I always have the wish that I just had 5 minutes more with each one of them … feeling so many things were left unsaid. I am ending my note here today as I started to cry a little and any little bit of creativity I may have had just left me. Have a good day and let’s hope this situation overseas gets resolved soon, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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