Good morning.

Investors woke up this morning in a surprisingly good mood, sending stocks higher and oil lower on belief that geopolitical tensions might relax a bit.

It’s a nice thought—and markets, as always, are more than happy to price in the best-case scenario before it actually occurs. The problem? While investors are celebrating peace, the rest of the economy is still dealing with higher mortgage rates, creeping inflation, and a consumer who is starting to feel like every trip to the store comes with a small surcharge.

The issue here (not fully explained in my AI-assisted paragraph above) is “it takes two to tango,” as the saying goes, and right now … with the U.S. 15-point peace proposal amid rumored Iranian rejection … it appears the U.S. could be dancing alone … for the moment at least.

There is rising concern that even if hostilities stop today, economic growth will slow.  In fact, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Moody’s raised the probability they place on recession taking place later this year in the U.S.

What can you do if you think recession is coming?  It’s simple. Place a bet on Kalshi or Polymarket … which offer wagering on “prediction markets.”

Why do I bring this up?

NY Post and many other news organizations are reporting very suspicious trades that recently took place around major government announcements … and the timing and amounts are shocking.

Major predictions … which paid off quite handsomely … occurred just before Trump’s major tariff announcement in April (not counting the claim on Firstpost that more than “a dozen executive-branch officials and congressional aides” sold stock right before) and someone profited handsomely on the Maduro (Venezuela) capture.   But the move early this week (NY Post and others) dwarfed them all … with a very large “bet” on oil dropping and stocks rising placed 15 minutes before the White House public announcement.

It seems crazy … and is (fortunately) raising a lot of eyebrows.

But as unfair as this may seem, I just don’t want anything to happen to betting sites.

Baseball seasons starts today … and without any “inside information” I’ve already placed my wager for the World Series winner.

The Mets.

I love Opening Day.

It fills me with so much hope.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | March 25, 2026 As of 10:20 AM today … After what seemed like positive developments, excitements around a resolution may have been a bit premature … as one very recent report has Iran rejecting U.S. proposals (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/iran-war-us-trump.html   … as some point out some economic pain if oil prices move upward from where they stand at this moment (Morningstar) https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/2026032441/its-like-the-sun-exploding-one-wall-street-firm-fears-200-oil-and-says-its-not-too-late-for-investors-to-prepare   … for not everything is based on oil alone … as odds for a recession (which seemed miniscule to start the year) have climbed … as many companies face rising costs (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/recession-odds-climb-on-wall-street-as-economy-shows-cracks-beneath-the-surface.html   If you’ve flown across the country, you know how exhausting it can be … but one airline hopes to change all his by offering seats upon which you can sleep during your flight (NYPost) https://nypost.com/2026/03/24/lifestyle/united-airlines-nixing-economy-seats-in-favor-of-premium-cabin-comforts/   If seafood looked like meat … would you eat it more often?  One company thinks so and will experiment with changing it appearance, but not its health benefits (ABCNews) https://apnews.com/article/fish-seafood-meat-flavors-appearance-00fd86440d41da2a67b701836532a589   At long last … it’s baseball season … and there will be one major difference as robots will help umpires … whose strike zone has become problematic in recent years (ABCNews) https://abcnews.com/Technology/wireStory/robot-umpires-coming-mlb-heres-work-131339719 The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.