Good morning.

Nearing the closure of another tough week for investors, stocks are in slight, negative, territory as traders struggle to separate rumor from fact with diminishing hopes that the undeclared war will soon conclude.

The issue, of course, is that it does not just take one party to declare things are over … as there are many participants … with each having a degree of anger issues and each possibly having different aims.  Even if the U.S. declares victory (via some sort of self-congratulatory tweet), the global cost of oil could still rise if other countries do not choose to holster their weapons.

It does not appear as if it is the U.S. alone who can decide when hostilities end.

Stopping oil-laden ships from travel is one thing … since it would only take an agreement to get the Strait fully open again (with a bit of delay) … but bombing oil and gas infrastructure could cause weeks (and maybe much longer) of disruption as oil-hungry nations around the globe clamor for supply amid a lengthy rebuild.

And trust and friendship among each member of OPEC happening any time soon?  In the words of famed economist Tony Soprano: “fuggedaboutit.”

Meanwhile, views on inflation … and Fed moves as a result … are changing rapidly and CNBC just made claim that the odds of a rate hike (you read that correctly) by June are greater than the odds of a rate cut … something that might have been consider almost impossible just a short while ago.

Higher prices for wholesalers and farmers related to diesel fuel and fertilizer could soon being to work its way through the system … and since price stability is one of the mandates of the Fed … their typical weapon of choice (rate increases) could very much come into play … not the way a new Fed Chair would like to make a grand entrance.

On a final note, the beleaguered US Post Office is claiming to be fast running out of money with the comment that in some areas (and maybe on some days) they will have to stop deliveries.

I don’t know why they don’t ask me, as I have a simple solution.

Junk mail, political notes and ads (a majority of what most receive) should only be delivered one day a week … say on Saturdays.

This way we can wheel our garbage cans right up to mailbox and just dump the load right in the trash

… where it belongs.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | March 20, 2026 As of 10:31 AM today … While a short-lived oil shock appears manageable, the fear is what could happen if the supply-side situation takes longer than anticipated to resolve (HBR) https://hbr.org/2026/03/the-oil-shock-is-here-and-were-just-beginning-to-feel-it   … especially as some items are already more costly as a result.  Farmers, for example, cannot wait, as they need to start planting now … and fertilizer prices are skyrocketing (TheGuardian) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/20/iran-war-us-farming-impact   … and some people are already … smartly … cutting back on spending. While some habits were foolish under any economic scenario … forced cutbacks give new insight (BuzzFeed) https://www.buzzfeed.com/kellymartinez/people-are-sharing-the-things-theyve-stopped-buying   What is the main economic concern? The effect of the Mideast situation on the consumer. Can inflation move up while economic growth flatlines?  Stagflation. Ugh (PaulKrugman) https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-whiff-of-stagflation   Good luck making your flight today.  Without paychecks coming in, a growing number of TSA agents are calling in sick.  And many are missing their flights (CBSNews) https://www.cbsnews.com/news/tsa-officers-third-call-out-major-us-airports-funding-standoff/   The Post Office claims they are running out of money … and may soon stop delivery on certain days. What a nightmare this once-proud organization has become (FederalNewsNetwork) https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2026/03/usps-cutting-delivery-days-on-the-table-as-agency-runs-out-of-cash-postmaster-general-tells-lawmakers/ The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.