Good morning.

Oil prices are showing an increase this morning as concern over oil flow and availability continues.  One problem faced is the onslaught of news stories and threats as investors discover they have no idea whether or not statements and threats made by warring parties are bluffs … for if not, there could be quite an effect.

Just two quick examples before I jump to market stuff.  In the first example, Euro News reported that the President threatened to bomb Iranian oil sites on an island that accounts for 90% of Iranian shipments, which would be devastating to their economy.  But on the flip side, Iran stated that oil infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates would then be targeted. It seems the situation can change from worrisome to disastrous at a moment’s notice.

On top of this news a report on inflation showed a surprising jump in the PPI (Producer Price Index) … which will, no doubt, make the Fed’s job all the more difficult as the group wants to bring inflation under control … and this could actually lead some to wonder if a rate increase could enter discussions … which seemed highly unlikely before action in Iran started.

Market reaction is not so severe at the moment … even with these recent developments … as the S&P is only down about half a percent … which some might find rather mild based on today’s developments.

But it is not only regular investors (you and me) caught in a fog, with vision certainly unclear.

For example, I saw yesterday a report in which Goldman Sachs gave the view that markets should still be up 13% from here to the end of the year (which is great news if correct) but also passed along the opinion that a 20% drop was entirely possible if things worsened.  Great … a 33% difference … thanks.

In a final note the last article below might be interesting as driverless trucks are now running between Dallas and Houston. Yes, completely driverless.

I don’t know what scares me more … seeing a massive truck without a driver barreling up behind me … or an uncertain stock market in front of me.

I’m going to sign off now.

I need an aspirin …

… or a drink.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | March 18, 2026 As of 11:59 AM today … A Producer Price Index (“PPI”) report this morning pointed out wholesale prices were higher than many anticipated … which can soon affect the consumer (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/ppi-inflation-february-2026.html   … and this war isn’t helping any … as oil prices are on the rise … which could slow the economy as spending habits adjust (NBCNews) https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/fed-meeting-iran-war-inflation-rcna263966   One way people try to make a little extra money … greatly needed in times like these … is to increase their “gambling.”  It has become easier with predictive markets … but is it legal? (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2026/03/17/nx-s1-5751165/kalshi-criminal-charges-arizona   The U.S. government might soon be asked to pony up more money for the Post Office, as the organization claims it could be insolvent within a year (TheGuardian) https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/mar/17/us-postal-service-february-2027   There was a big rush for Americans to get dual citizenship with Italy by showing Italian heritage, but it just became a lot more difficult (TravelPirates) https://www.travelpirates.com/captains-log/italian-citizenship-ancestry-ruling-2026   The distance between Dallas and Houston is around 240 miles … which seems to be the perfect distance to confirm the safety and reliability of “driverless” trucks (HoodLine) https://hoodline.com/2026/03/robot-rigs-hit-texas-driverless-semis-now-running-i-45-between-dallas-and-houston/ The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.