Good morning. Stocks are bouncing around this morning as each new statement (some of which appears to be opinion disguising itself as fact) has investors no longer focused on earnings and the Fed … but, instead, on oil and a war … which some still expect to be over soon. I thought about this during the morning and, unfortunately perhaps, went online and found the Civil War, First World War, and Vietnam … were also wars that … when the U.S. entered … were thought to last only a very short time. In truth, we … and, especially, I … have no idea … but one thing I do know is investors hate uncertainty … and presently we have no shortage of uncertainly over how this whole Mideast situation will pan out. But focus this morning shifted to a report that GDP for the fourth quarter of last year was revised downward, yet the present view has become that the Fed (with inflation quite a bit above the Fed “target”) will not lower rates at next week’s meeting … and we might not even see a cut until June. And I mean June of this year for you skeptics. And I did see one surprising thing that grabbed my attention in the second article below … as the Associated Press article claimed job growth in 2025 was “the weakest hiring outside recession years since 2002.” I try to pay attention to such items, didn’t realize that, and this scared me. On a happier note, I went out to dinner last night and will admit it was expensive … as it was a special event … but what made it even more costly was the tip. When you think about it, it is interesting to realize we have become accustomed to tipping 20% for a meal (out of fear of being perceived as cheap, otherwise). Last week, I went out one night and the bill for the table was $90 … meaning a tip of $18 or so. Last night was a pretty expensive place and the bill was $200 … meaning a $40 tip. Did the waitress work twice as hard last night than the other waitress did a week ago? Heck, the extra money was already baked into the recipe of my overpriced meal. What brought this immediately to mind is the last article below which shows that not only are over 40% of Americans against tipping at all … but also claims a majority feel tips should remain taxed. That’s it for me today. I’m going out to lunch … … just letting you know that if you see me walk in, you might be wise to send another waitress to my table … as peer pressure or not, I will go back to the days where the tip amount will be based on the service received and not strictly out of guilt. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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