Good morning.

Financial professionals typically have a relatively quiet March … during the gap between one “earnings season” and the next … but with the Iran situation changing by the hour, most traders have one eye on their screens … and the other on the news … as each story … true or not … has the potential to result in wild swings.

Right now, things don’t look good … but what the heck do I know? I am with everyone else wishing this is resolved quickly … but one thing investors hate is uncertainty … and right now we have uncertainty in spades.

What we do know is oil jumped again early this morning … flying above $115/barrel for Brent crude … before settling down to its present price of around $100 (still, an 8% climb for the day) … for around 20% of the world’s global consumption of oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz … through which traffic has almost slowed to a halt.

The issue (not the only issue, of course) is the effect on our economy with oil prices that are up around 17% since the war began … since this also directly leads to a jump in prices of all types of gasoline for “regular” vehicles, trucks (in the way of diesel) and even jet fuel for planes (which an article in the NY Post claims has risen by 56%!).

Sorry … I was so excited writing about oil that I neglected to mention the markets today which seem to be taking everything in stride … down a tad but nothing close to what futures showed in the overnight hours when the oil price had its temporary spike.

Still, as implied above we, uncomfortably, have no idea what tomorrow will bring.

Economist Ed Yardini raised his “chances for a market meltdown” to 35% … but RBC Capital Markets Analyst, Helima Croft, tells how difficult reading the tea leaves can actually be, pointing out: “it’s hard to forecast whether this will be a multi-week or multi-month conflict.”

I do have confidence we know exactly what we are doing … but, truth be told, I have my fingers crossed as I, admittedly, might be confusing hope with trust.

I am not used to watching oil prices but find that my constant checking of something over which I have no control results in only one thing … as I find that at times lately …

… it’s difficult to think Strait.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | March 9, 2026 As of 11:41 AM today … The cost of a barrel of oil has gone up over 40% since the start of the bombing of Iran, leaving investors to wonder if this is a temporary move or something longer-lasting (APNews) https://apnews.com/article/oil-prices-crude-brent-iran-ecab41ec6a365e58282f4cfbab62a9ff   How severe has the oil situation been?  According to this article, the supply disruption is being called “the biggest in history.” Yikes (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/the-us-iran-war-is-the-biggest-oil-supply-disruption-in-history.html   I usually discount forecasting claims by people designated by the press to be market “experts,” but Ed Yardini is no slouch … and he is increasing his odds of a severe market drop (247WallSt) https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/03/09/market-meltdown-odds-at-35/   Meanwhile, the weather created recent havoc in the northeast, and the cold we experienced turned into nice weather … but another polar vortex bout may be heading back (Time) https://time.com/7382950/climate-change-speeding-up-science/   … and those who freak out about rising sea level have another worry … one I experienced on Long Island … where compound when the land starts to sink (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2026/03/09/nx-s1-5741796/rising-seas-climate-change-study   For those who forgot, there are some government employees working without pay and just staying home … and when TSA employees do this, chaos ensues (WKZO) https://wkzo.com/2026/03/08/security-lines-at-some-us-airports-hit-three-hours-as-tsa-absences-rise/ The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.