Good morning. Today is the final day of the famed “Santa Claus Rally” … and, interestingly, the S&P is now just points away from its close on Dec. 23 … leaving some to conclude that … well … Santa stayed home. Meanwhile, stocks are showing slight gains as investors try to assess just how the U.S. situation in Venezuela will play out … especially as it pertains to that country’s vast, but poorly managed, oil reserves. I’ll stay on international this morning … as it is a subject I very much enjoy. A drop in the dollar … negative in some ways … helps unhedged international investments as their strengthened currency transfers into more dollars. This situation resulted in what Daily Shot reports as a year for which it was announced: “U.S. equities lag world by largest margin since 2009.” And while Chinese stocks (for one) had a good year, the country is having a problem similar to one we are facing … aging. If you recall, China was once worried about rampant population growth and instituted a “one child per family” policy. Noticing too much success, the country decided this was harsh and put in a “two-child” policy … but even then, the demographics continued an unfavorable trend. So, a three-child policy was enacted … and still the problems continued … and continue to this day. The fact is populations in Europe, East Asia, North America and Latin America are below replacement, and it seems that only parts of Africa are strong in this area. So as much as immigration is blasted right now, there might be a future time when it is highly desired and promoted … strictly out of necessity. I just looked before ending this note and market gains are continuing this morning … quite a relief as it seems all strategists are calling for a positive year … and it is always comforting to start off on the right foot. This is really needed as I hate starting off any new year with a complaint … but certainly have one. Wanting to try it out, I bought this big box of wine … worried about its expiration date. But the salesperson, who I trusted, told me that once it was opened it would last for six weeks. Six weeks? Ha! It didn’t even last the weekend. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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