Good morning.

I’ll be all over the place today as I am teaching my last class before (ta dah!) finals week … which starts next Monday … and need to get students prepared for what lies ahead.

Markets are relatively flat this morning and focus does not seem to be so much on what the Fed announces on Wednesday … for which a 25 bps (0.25%) cut is highly anticipated … but on the follow-up press conference … which should indicate where we might be headed in the year ahead.

It is tough to get a handle on the present situation. Some data (amid new market records) suggest things are fine and our economy has shown quite a bit of resilience … while other bits of information … including consumer sentiment, employment and “affordability” (today’s buzzword) point to problems ahead.

Is it time to revisit Kyla Scanlon’s claim of “vibesession” … where economic data looks good, but people feel economically bad?  Perhaps.

I had an interesting discussion with a friend yesterday as he talked about his daughter wanting to buy a house, but it will be tough “until mortgage rates come down and return to normal.”  Is this what everyone is waiting for … rates to return to normal?

What is normal?

Sure … in the 1940s, the VA capped rates as soldiers returned home from the war but staring in the 1970s … when Freddie Mac started recording rates … typical mortgages were above 7% … and sometimes well above that … through the end of the last century (according to Texas Republic Bank). Heck, I paid 7% in 1988 when I bought my first house.

The 4% mortgages seen just a few short years ago were anything but normal and … sad to say … might not be coming back for quite some time … if ever.

And that … with home prices having risen so much … makes typical home ownership out of reach for many families just starting out.

Maybe I’ll have to put on an extension.

Looking at the numbers …

… I get the feeling my kid might never be able to leave home.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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A Look At The News | December 8, 2025 As of 8:46 AM today: The Fed is meeting this week, and holiday-focused investors are wondering if Santa is arriving with wonderful gifts … or bringing sacks of coal (Morningstar) https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20251207139/the-fed-meeting-this-week-will-determine-if-investors-get-new-all-time-highs-or-coal-for-christmas   Quite a few houses on Wall Street are calling for continued gains in 2026 … but not everyone as Bank of America warns us to temper our excitement (TheStreet) https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bank-of-america-unveils-surprise-2026-stock-market-forecast   A few years ago, adjustable-rate mortgages were in vogue … until, of course, quite a few got an unpleasant surprise when rates rose.  Well … they seem to be coming back (QZ) https://qz.com/-adjustable-rate-mortgages-home-loans-buyers   Cold weather has arrived … and one curious question has been answered regarding home heating. It seems logical to close doors of unused rooms, but this article says no (SouthernLiving) https://www.southernliving.com/should-you-close-doors-to-unused-rooms-in-winter-11860305   Okay … I’ll be frank.  I don’t know if I will trust Elon Musk on this one, but he tells Tesla drivers that it is now safe for them to text and drive (Electrek) https://electrek.co/2025/12/04/elon-musk-tesla-fsd-drivers-can-now-text-drive/   Like many others, I accumulate glass jars and plastic containers to go into my recycling bin.  Does it do any good? Probably not … and many suspect (many rightly) it is all for naught (AlterNet) https://www.alternet.org/recycling-is-a-lie/ The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.