Good morning. On the heels of some positive inflation data, investors are nervously hitting the buy button this morning … as all three major U.S. indexes are inching closer to record highs. The hope and expectation are that the Fed will cooperate next week and then a Santa Claus rally will put a bow on another positive market year. Of course, the big question is whether the good feelings will continue into 2026. The Consumer Confidence number came in, and I made sure to include the U. Michigan survey result below. Even though present conditions and forward expectations are worse (much) than they were a year ago, things seem to be trending in the right direction … though one interesting note is much of the improvement came from “younger consumers” … as us older folk are both a bit more patient and a lot more cynical. What can change attitudes in a hurry? Health care costs … which could skyrocket for many as we enter the new year. And if they do, many present smiles will turn into frowns. This is a major concern. I was speaking with friends yesterday and one shared it has suddenly become his family’s second largest monthly expense … below mortgage and well above food … and he eats a lot. If nothing is done, I fear the increase – the way it is being presented now – could hit people like a ton of bricks. And what would this do to consumer confidence? I’d be ready for some scary numbers in the surveys ahead. I don’t know what is going on with this AI thing. I do recommend people who have yet to try it to check it out to see what it is all about as I find it fascinating … even with its early flaws. There is a lot of press about something called Gemini 3 … and how it is being favored (by many) over ChatGPT … so I must see what that is all about. The article on this that might both interest and scare you is the third one below where the claim is AI will replace … sit down for this one … 80% of all jobs. This is probably an exaggeration … but even if it is 10% or even 5% … what then? I am just getting a bit annoyed as to how technology has taken over our lives. Most of the appliances in my home are “smart” appliances. What? And I can tell Alexa to turn off my lights and open the garage door as I look at my phone to see who is ringing my doorbell. But hacking is still a problem … and a very big one for me … as my email password was just attacked again and fixing it is such a headache … as this is the time this year that I had to rename my dog. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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