Good morning. There certainly is a lot going on. Stocks are on the decline to start the day as concerns over the U.S. job market are being included in a greater number of discussions. Meanwhile, for those keeping score, the next Fed meeting is just over a month away … and FedWatch is predicting a 69% chance that another cut is in store which might be raised when this employment new data is absorbed… showing the October job cuts to be the most in over 20 years. On top of this, FactSet reports “layoff mentions on Q3 corporate earnings calls have also jumped to peak Covid levels.” Those still working will no doubt question if their own positions are safe … with possible belt tightening going into the holiday season having nothing to do with the increasing adoption of a weight loss drug. If you are getting prepared to fly over the next week or so, it will be wise to check with your airline before heading out … and you certainly should have a “plan B” in place. The FAA is warning that as many as 10% of all U.S. flights will be grounded due to the continuing government shutdown as unpaid air traffic controllers are … um … not enthusiastically showing up for work. To understand how big this is, try feasting on the ramifications as reported on CNBC. I mean … we are talking about 3,500 to 4,000 flights each day. Yowser! As if all this was not enough to pay attention to, the Supreme Court tariff discussion is creating drama of its own … as the legality of the tariffs is being questioned. One problem brought out is just what might occur if the revenue already raised needs to be returned … as one justice understated that refunding tariffs would be “a mess.” But some feel it would be a necessary mess as reversing something hastily put into place is never easy … yet should be done if it is … well … the right thing to do. That about ends my chatter a bit early today as I have a lunch meeting I need to run off to … and then it’s off to a doctor’s appointment. I’ve been taking this medicine I picked up after my last appointment, but I think I am being hit with one of the side effects. I explained to my doctor that I’m starting to have hallucinations … but he told me not to worry … … as I am probably just imagining them. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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