Good morning.

The September inflation number that came in this morning … showing the highest year-over-year price growth since January … was lower than anticipated, creating quite a bit of excitement among Fed-watchers … and driving the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq to new intraday records.

Expectations grew that the Fed will lower rates at next week’s meeting, even as some hold concern that the October inflation number (the next one due out) might not only be delayed but might be skipped over completely … as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting that “all active data collection activities have been paused” due to the government shutdown.  The thought that a month might be passed over is alarming … considering that there has never been a missed report for information that has been supplied, continuously, since prior to the First World War.

Meanwhile, not everyone is convinced inflation is on the mend as some strategists point out a few firms built up inventory (to get ahead of tariffs) but that excess, for some, has now been depleted.

We are in a bit of a situation with Canada … as the Province of Ontario broadcast an anti-tariff ad which provided a portion of comments given by Ronald Reagan … and our own President is not too happy … and said trade talks with Canada have now ended as a result, while claiming the ad to be “fake” and intended to somehow interfere with decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court.

To be fair, I included the entire transcript of the Reagan address in the third message below as the Canadian-made ad did have some editing … and you can understand why the statements that tariffs could have bad long-term effects driving up prices and stifling innovation might not sit well with those that presently promote them.

I know my note is short today and I don’t know what I’ll do this afternoon (other than grade some exams) but I know what I will certainly be doing tonight.  I only watched one episode of “Task” on HBO Max but found it exceptional and can’t wait to binge watch the next few sections.

I’m also starting to grab some Halloween candy from Costco, fearing there will be a rush this weekend.

Last year my talented brother showed me a couple of magic tricks you can actually do with candy, and I need to practice as I want to show this to my class next week to break up the boredom.

One example?

I plan have a few Twix up my sleeve.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | October 24, 2025 As of 11:21 AM today: While inflation is still quite a bit above the Fed’s target rate … and the highest it has been since January … being lower than expected could set the stage for a rate cut next week (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/24/cpi-inflation-september-2025.html   … though there is the possibility that Canadian goods will be a bit more expensive as the President … angered by an anti-tariff ad … halted discussions on trade (APNews) https://apnews.com/article/trump-canada-trade-tariffs-a0cfd202ef6f22052827b784be708fd6   … and the transcript of what was said by Ronald Reagan back in 1987?  This is what has been put out by the Reagan Library (ReaganLibrary) https://www.reaganlibrary.gov/archives/speech/radio-address-nation-free-and-fair-trade-4   A major problem for young adults just starting out is being able to find an affordable starter home. With prices and mortgage rate up … it takes some doing … but some can be found (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/10/23/nx-s1-5582442/starter-homes-housing-mortgage-rates   While making a good first impression is, of course, important, don’t forget to also leave on a high note … as last impressions really do leave a mark (ArtofManliness) https://www.artofmanliness.com/skills/how-to/make-great-last-impression/   With the government shutdown continuing, some workers are still not getting paid … amid uncertainty over just when paychecks will be arriving (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/10/24/nx-s1-5581505/government-shutdown-federal-employees-paycheck The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.