Good morning. Pity the poor consumer. Looking at all that is going on at the moment and responding to surveys where their mood … as Barron’s puts it … “remains downbeat” … you wonder if they are buying anything at all. Well, the answer at the moment is “yes” … stocks … as the S&P came close to setting yet another all-time high earlier today … before going into a bit of a retreat. And the reason for the decline? It could be a number of things, but Bloomberg is reporting the President said he will not meet with China’s President Xi and threatens new tariffs … angry about China limiting its rare-earth exports … leaving some to ask … can’t we all just get along? One of the worries about the shutdown has, of course, has been in collecting data … as it was said the Fed is “flying blind” as it approaches the next meeting taking place in less than 3 weeks. But hold on a second … some furloughed workers from the BLS (“Bureau of Labor Statistics”) have been called back to work … as the government suddenly realized the need for important data (including the third quarter numbers from which social security adjustments are based). One thing I immediately think of is there might be a slew of angry people working on the numbers. Just saying. An additional item has to do with social security … as while people are receiving their checks … many count on “benefit letters,” allowing them to apply for certain aid … and many are finding these letters delayed … with help is not easy to get in some places. As an aside, I went to the regional social security office yesterday … having had an appointment that I made weeks ago … and the service I received was immediate and quite helpful. While it has nothing to do with the shutdown, Halloween is around the corner and prices for chocolate have skyrocketed … with Wells Fargo’s Agri-food Institute reporting cocoa prices to have more than doubled since early 2024. It looks like I’m handing out candy corn again. In other news (articles below) some wealthy people have started “doom prepping” … fearing AI will eventually take over the world (noting the author is probably taking liberties). But kind of related to this is the note where quite a large number of kids seem to have at least one “AI friend” … not real … completely made up … but an available companion, never too busy to chat with. This is, of course, scary … very … and I want to look into it further. The final article today addresses costs for homes … including those considered vacation. It seems a growing number of people are recognizing the wisdom (in terms of savings) of “going in” with friends or relatives … cutting down substantially on the bills. Frankly, I would love to do this in a heartbeat … as I can’t afford a vacation home. The problem is I have no friends … … and my new AI companion doesn’t have a steady job. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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