Good morning. Markets are mixed this morning as investors await additional data either confirming (or disputing) the view that tariffs will have a negative effect on the economy … an opinion with which not everyone agrees. What is interesting here is a report from S&P Global that the AA+ long-term credit rating for the U.S. will remain as is … with the claim that tariff revenue “will help offset the fiscal blow” brought on from the recent bill. There is still a lot of wheeling and dealing going on and, frankly, no one knows where this will lead … but so far investors are taking it in stride. According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates have come down to their lowest level in almost a year … falling to 6.58% for 30-year loan. Of course, it is all a matter of perspective … as back when I bought my first home, this rate would have been celebrated … while many feel it is uncomfortably high. Even so, a few are probably waiting for the Fed to finally lower rates as most times (not every) there is high correlation between 30-year mortgages and the rate of the 10-year Treasury plus a little bit of a spread (typically between 1 and 2%). And the hope is that even a half-percent drop in mortgages would bring the housing market back to life. I don’t usually mention golf – other than my own futile attempts when I play … but thought I would point out comments from Ben Griffin who shot 6-over-par on the first three holes Sunday during the BMW Championship … including 4 putts from 3 feet away on the very first hole! His claim is he “overdosed on creatine” which made him shaky. You know, the use of creatine and protein powder is so prevalent now … especially by kids … but this is the first (or most public) situation I’ve heard about where it may have caused a problem. On a final note, I have my own energy issues. My car went into the shop yesterday and I got really used to the immediate power from an electric motor. While driving my gas-powered car rental, I was very surprised (as was another driver) when I pulled into traffic … floored the gas pedal … and had my car labor to catch up to cruising speed … and I mean labor. Later today I am putting creatine in the fuel tank to see if that helps. That about wraps it up for today as the S&P and Dow are basically flat and the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down almost a percent as a BCA analyst is starting to question if AI is resulting in some tech stocks moving toward “bubble territory.” Meanwhile, I took a morning break … and watched my dog chase its tail for about 10 minutes as I thought, “wow, these dumb dogs are so easily entertained.” Then I realized I just sat there watching my dog chase his tail for 10 minutes. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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