Good morning.

Concerns over employment were heightened this morning as a jobs report sent a bit of a shockwave through the markets.  No, it wasn’t the slight change from the previous month, nor the unemployment rate (somewhat steady at 4.2%) … or even the gain being lower than expected … but what has shocked the markets are downward revisions of the previous two months … showing over a quarter of a million fewer jobs than previously reported. Wow!  So much for AIN (“Accuracy in Numbers”).

So now the Fed finds itself in one heck of a bind.

The majority of the Fed is worried over the possible inflationary result of a rate cut (in the face of a strong economy) … with a couple of governors more focused on employment … while the President has called for a coup of sorts … giving public notification that the governors should “take over” if Jay Powell doesn’t move on rates.

And piled atop all this pleasantness, we have tariffs … as the President announced new rates … and dates … possibly emboldened by recent agreements with a few foreign leaders.

All-in-all … there is probably one bit of certainty.  The recent trend of stock market records being set every day has, likely, ended for now.

There is an interesting item happening in the halls of congress, as a bill (called the PELOSI bill) … a cute acronym for “Preventing Elected Leaders from Owning Securities and Investments” … has found a small degree of bi-partisan support.  However much public support this might have, it could go absolutely nowhere as one powerful senator, Ron Johnson (who has a reported net worth of around $50 million), is quoted as saying this could lead to making it “unattractive” to run for office.  Really?

I’m ending this a bit early this morning … as the two major points on tariffs and the jobs number were already addressed.

Besides, I have to do a bit of personal work … as I am finally putting a will together … something I’ve been delaying … especially as I don’t want to think through funeral details.

I am including one fun thing though … and idea stolen from a wedding.

I have someone designated to take the bouquet off my casket and throw it into the crowd

… just to see who’s next.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | August 1, 2025 As of 11:01 AM today: Surprise, surprise, surprise … or, at least, that’s how investors see it … for updated tariff rates and dates have just been announced … and markets saw an immediate decline (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/07/31/nx-s1-5482859/trump-tariff-rates-executive-order   Job numbers were released this morning … and are trending down … as uncertainly over the tariff effects remain (BLS) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm   … and the two Fed governors are now able to speak publicly about their dissent … both giving the view that waiting to cut rates threatens economic growth (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/fed-governors-bowman-waller-explain-their-dissents-say-waiting-to-cut-rates-threatens-economy.html   “I can’t help falling in love with you” might move beyond being a song by Elvis … and something a few might be whispering to their AI-created partners. Um … and vice versa … creepy (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/human-ai-relationships-love-nomi.html   Stock trading by people in Congress … long complained about by investors … is being reviewed … and some in Congress don’t like an attempt to rein it in (Rollcall) https://rollcall.com/2025/07/30/senate-panel-advances-bill-banning-congressional-stock-trading/   Math anxiety is a real thing … but, fortunately, there are ways to combat this … but it takes a bit of patience and starting at a young age (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2019/05/14/723182826/raising-kids-who-love-math-even-if-you-dont The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.