Good morning. Inflation has yet to show its ugly head – regardless of forecasts – and while some in the White House slam fists on tables claiming tariffs are working, many on Wall Street (and the Fed) are saying it is too early to tell how the movie turns out. Following a wholesale inflation number that was surprisingly unchanged for June, stocks rose at the open … settled down a bit … and right now stand slightly down for the session … turning south as the President again makes threats to fire Jay Powell. But that doesn’t mean fireworks aren’t in store based on other things … as many claims are out there that the threatened Trump tariffs will not happen … at least to the extent discussed … but if they do, investors might not be as complacent as they appear to be at the moment. One thing I forgot to mention yesterday is I misplaced a credit card. I popped into a store on Monday night … as somehow the urge for ice cream was (again) stronger than my will power … paid by credit card … and less than an hour later, realized my just-used credit card was missing. Searching everywhere, I went back to the store and the person behind the counter said I didn’t leave it behind. Strange. Well, the purpose of this story is to just explain how easy it was to hop on my phone, go to the Visa website and put an immediate block on my card (prior to requesting a replacement). Two things caught my eye this morning. First is an article on something called “revenge saving” which is the opposite of “revenge spending.” Note that revenge spending has to do with “pent up demand’ … such as when people couldn’t go out during Covid, they spent with “wild abandon” once the all-clear sign was given. Restaurants and other service areas could overcharge … and people were willing to pay … as it felt good to spend. Presently, however, we might be running into a period of revenge savings … where people realize they have … for too long … paid too much without question … and are now starting to reel it in a bit. This has already started … as the article below shares the news that savings rates are climbing. On a final note for today, the weather has been crazy … but are news channels (and statisticians) overexaggerating things a bit? I’m not sure. Just recently … and this is before yesterday’s flooding in New Jersey … there were four (4) rains since December, that were called “1-in-1,000-year events” … which statisticians would say is nearly impossible. Still, the floods have been quite remarkable … as have the temperatures (and it’s not even August) … so we might find a few more people falling into the “climate change” believer camp. That about wraps it up for today as I plan to go outside for a bit. But I did realize one thing as we touch 90 degrees late today … Heat makes things expand … so I might not have a weight problem after all. It’s just hot. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
|
Call Us: +1 (800) 722-4123 
Back