Good morning. A report showing a slowdown in private payrolls brought a rising market to a temporary halt as ADP Chief Economist, Nela Richardson, blamed “hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers” as culprits behind a number that fell short of expectations. But the big question will be just what this might mean for the Fed … after all, the ADP report does not seem to be as accurate as what is called the “Jobs Report” … expected to be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) tomorrow (which is early due to the holiday). Ah yes, the Fed … which will receive a lot of attention in the coming weeks. Not only will the guessing games over the next rate cut be at a fever pitch until the end of the month … but an announcement on Jay Powell’s replacement can come at any time … probably at some moment when the administration feels it most opportune to knock some negative piece of economic news out of the headlines. And, of course, these job numbers are taking on a higher degree of importance than usual … for the Fed is quite concerned over a possible jump in the unemployment rate … and seem to be between a rock and a hard place in the attempt to keep inflation in check. Sorry if what I just wrote is a little boring. It’s always a bad sign when I read what I’ve written, and it bores even me … but I’m too lazy to go back and start over. There was one bit of news that I did find interesting … and included below … for it seems there is evidence that there are increased incidences of Parkinsons for people living near golf courses … but the study was done in a limited geographical area with a limited number of participants … so (as analyst friends like to point out) there is not enough data to claim “statistical significance.” Still, the result is intriguing. How are your math skills? I must admit, math has been a favorite subject of mine (due to an illness, no doubt) … so when I came across a recent article claiming an increase in caffeine before exams help to improve the result, I took notice. Now there is another claim … per the last article below … made about something else that increases math skills … zapping people with a jolt of electricity. Huh? Who volunteered? I don’t know about that one … which I find shocking … for it seems that every study I’ve seen lately has a head-scratching result … with most based only on limited data. I even found one concluding that running full speed into stationary objects can be quite painful … … according to a recent pole. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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