Good morning.

Stocks are down to start the week as the trade war seems to have escalated.

Now, you might wonder how things could possibly get worse … since high tariffs from both sides have already had an effect of stopping trade … but there is another wrinkle.  According to BBC, the U.S. is planning to offer a carrot to those countries that restrict trade with China … by giving favorable tariff treatment … while Beijing, in turn, is threatening retaliation towards those countries that accept the U.S. offer.

Some think this could get real ugly, real fast.

Investors are also worried that the president will try to “fire” Fed Chairman Powell … as it could cause a bit of upheaval for both equities and the U.S. dollar where the recent sell-off (according to CBS News) is raising concerns that investors “… are losing trust in the U.S.” … as we keep in mind the U.S. dollar was long seen as a stable “safe-haven” currency … but once trust is lost … well … oh, my.

The dollar drop is quite interesting for another reason.

When a currency declines in comparison to others, it is typically good for exports (as your goods can be purchased with fewer overseas units of value) and imports become more expensive.  But for a foreign tourist, travel to the U.S. is now “more affordable” … and you might typically think more visitors will come … but the opposite is happening.

According to the third article below, the U.S. could lose $90 billion in lost tourism revenue as tariffs and rhetoric are not playing well among this group. Along these lines, there are reports that farm subsidies might be offered to help offset the decline in exported food items from farmers … but how do you provide fair relief to hotels, restaurants, gift shops … and others … whose cash registers will ring fewer times as tourists decide not to come?

It is an increasingly concerning situation as summer travel plans are now being finalized and some who planned to come and spend money in the U.S. are either going elsewhere or just staying home.

That about wraps it up for today as the holiday is over and I have to finish cleaning my kitchen.

I tried to make my own cheese yesterday, which was silly as it came out terrible …

… and I found there was absolutely no whey to fix it.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | April 21, 2025 As of 10:45 AM today: While the U.S. remains in an apparent trade war with China their government is warning its own trading partners about cozying up to U.S. demands to limit trade with China (BBC) https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2708dl9n1o   … and there is a bit of concern toward the eventual outcome … for if you cut off a nation’s economy, it might retaliate in ways that make trade war turn into real war (Newsweek) https://www.newsweek.com/trump-us-china-trade-war-tariffs-2061997   Not only the is the tariff battle heating up … but travel to the U.S. has become uncomfortable for some as well … and it is certainly hurting tourism (NBCNews) https://www.nbcnews.com/business/consumer/travelers-going-to-united-states-less-due-to-trump-tariffs-rhetoric-rcna201640   … which is surprising as things are now “cheaper” here in the U.S. with the decline of the dollar … and threats that Fed Chairman Powell could be fired aren’t helping matters (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/us-dollar-falls-to-three-year-low-as-trumps-powell-threats-further-dent-investor-confidence.html   At one point in time, electricity was seen as problematic for so much fossil fuel was used in its “manufacture.”  No longer … as a majority of our electricity is from other sources (Cleantechnica) https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/19/fossil-fuels-no-longer-majority-of-us-electricity/   One of the important things to help a career is presentation skills.  For most, it doesn’t come naturally … but reducing a few mistakes … shown here … goes a long way (Inc) https://www.inc.com/peter-economy/7-presentation-mistakes-that-make-you-look-really-unprofessional/91177212   The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.