Good morning.

A market rebound continues … and some are calling it a “relief rally” … expressing relief in the growing hope that Mideast hostilities will soon come to an end.

But that does not mean risk has disappeared … far from it … and the higher price of gas in the U.S. could stick around for quite some time.

While the situation seems a bit calmer, all of that can change in an instance and a clearer picture might be presented (or not) as the President is scheduled to address the nation tonight at 9 PM Eastern Time.

Questions are many … including what a ceasefire would entail … the opening (and control) of the Strait of Hormuz … and even the once-unheard-of consideration that the United States would walk away from membership in NATO.

Yes … there is a lot to be discussed tonight … with overnight trading being the scorecard.

Even so, quite a few will probably get an early indication of the contents of the speech … not by reviewing the text by any means … but by looking at trading … ahead of time … done on “prediction markets.”

As explained in the second-to-last article below, predictions can be placed on almost everything now-a-days … and the Massive trades (the “M” is capitalized on purpose) just before recent White House announcements have some regulators concerned over the source of the trades and if purchases made were more than coincidental … though the size and direction rain doubt upon that non-insider claim.

In fact, I just placed “bets” on Kalshi regarding statements to be made during Trump’s speech tonight … and I get 3:1 odds on his using the words: “ceasefire”, “Biden”, “Eight Time”, “Marco” or “Withdraw” (so I am hoping to hear at least 2 of these to come out ahead). It’s interesting … addicting … and, for now, has little regulation.

On a final note for today, discussions are ongoing with regard to social security as we have known for years funds will be depleted … and the can has been kicked so far down the road that is it quite heavily dented.

But what is the solution? Will we all take a cut in our payouts … or just some of us?  Will the upper income limit be raised (something that should have been done long ago)? Or will retirement age once again be moved upward?

Me?  I am with those who feel we should reach deeply into people’s pockets for funding …

… for to save social security, I am very much in favor of raising taxes as much as we need to …

… as long as it is done on anybody that isn’t me.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | April 1, 2026 As of 10:40 AM today … Will a ceasefire in the Mideast lower gas prices?  Probably … but not immediately as some infrastructure has already been destroyed (CNN) https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/01/business/gas-prices-trump-strait-of-hormuz-iran   … as rising prices are already causing Americans to readjust their spending habits as they find budgets getting a little tight (USAToday) https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/04/01/gas-prices-4-changing-life-usa/89401740007/   While there has been some positive news on the economy … meaning our GDP has not declined …  a concern is if has only improved due to U.S. borrowing (and spending) (Investopedia) https://www.investopedia.com/gdp-is-only-growing-because-of-the-federal-deficit-how-much-of-a-problem-is-that-11934261   … and how “sustainable” is our continuing reliance on borrowing?  Jerome Powell says it might be okay to a degree … but after that … well … ouch (Benzinga) https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/26/03/51564462/jerome-powell-sounds-alarm-39-trillion-unsustainable-debt-path-it-will-not-end-well   There have been some very coincidentally profitable trades made on prediction sites lately, and a few officials are calling for an investigation (BusinessInsider) https://www.businessinsider.com/cftc-official-prosecute-insider-trading-prediction-markets-2026-3   It has long been known that social security is in trouble … or, at least, will face “a funding shortfall” in six years. How will this gap be closed? Discussions are ongoing (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/social-security-shortfall-who-will-pay.html The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.