Good morning.

Love her or hate her (and I’m not taking sides here), Hillary Clinton famously (and, perhaps, tirelessly) pointed out a few times that “words matter” in politics … for a single utterance can have significant and immediate consequences.

Late Saturday night, the President threatened to bomb (um, “obliterate”) Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz wasn’t reopened by Monday night … and with Iran’s response that they would react in kind, stock futures dropped … oil prices jumped … and investors started to wonder if their 401ks would soon turn into 201ks if quick action wasn’t taken.

But a new comment just came from the White House (via “tweet” of course), delaying this move by five days (coincidentally, after markets close for the week),

One problem though, still exists.  And that is the appearance of a black swan.

In a 2010 book, author Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote about the occasionally rare event that has not been properly calculated or considered for which consequences are extreme.  In finance, this could be considered as a “negative fat tail” event … of very low forecasted probability but which can cause financial disruption (think October 1987 or Covid or September 11th). And while we might not be entirely taken by surprise if the Iranian situation turns really ugly, real fast … it is still not seen as likely to happen based on this claim from the White House this morning.

Meanwhile … for what choice do we have … hope does exist that it is not a black swan we see at all but … instead … with apologies to Hans Christian Anderson … just a very ugly duckling.

Futures … which were negative this morning … roared higher on the breaking news … um, tweet … and the price of Brent crude oil dropped below $100/barrel and WTI (West Texas crude) declined by 7%. Of course, we have yet to learn of Iran’s response to the claim of discussions and negotiations with the U.S. … and anxiously look forward to reports that this unfortunate chapter is nearing an end.

Frankly, as an investor I am unsure how to react.  Move some money to the sideline, just in case?  After all, The Economist Magazine (accused of being a little “left of center”) came out with a report saying the damage done to the global energy sector over the last week will already have a months-long effect on oil and gas prices … even if hostilities stopped today.

I have no way of knowing … as I get almost all my news from tv, the internet and tweets … probably like most of us.

Meanwhile, with oil prices down sharply I might take a drive to the local gas station to see how quickly their prices drop

… obviously, I’m in need pf a good laugh.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | March 23, 2026 As of 8:01 AM today … A red line (okay, another red line) has been drawn in Iran as the U.S. government threatens to blow up power plants if Iran does not allow for the free passage of oil (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2026/03/22/nx-s1-5756308/trump-threatens-obliterate-irans-power-plants-iran-strikes-2-israeli-cities   … and companies, looking at their overseas operations, wonder just how they will be affected over the long term as China tells them to look towards them for a solution (FinancialTimes) https://archive.is/WWkJW   Gold and silver were the plays of the last few months but have recently sold off … even as inflation risks increase.  Strange (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/23/gold-and-silver-in-freefall-as-investors-flee-safe-haven-metals-trade.html   The UN continues to put out reports that the climate change we have seen is not sustainable and yet new records seem to be set every year. Is the danger real? (UnitedNations) https://turkiye.un.org/en/312298-un-chief-warns-%E2%80%98climate-chaos%E2%80%99-wmo-reports-record-heat-and-deepening-planetary-imbalance   Wal-Mart is introducing “digital pricing” … which, as we’ve learned, can change prices based on demand and many other metrics. There will be complaints, but what choice do we have? (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/21/walmart-digital-price-tags-will-be-in-every-us-store-by-end-of-2026.html   … but airlines play the same game … forcing some to find a loophole.  If buying a ticket in Euros is cheaper than dollars … have your computer report it is located in Rome (GaminTraveler) https://www.gamintraveler.com/2026/03/22/this-vpn-location-shows-europeans-flight-prices-americans-never-see/ The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.