Good morning.

Investors … and Fed officials … are probably heading out to the local pharmacies his morning to make sure headache medicine is in full supply as we head into the weekend.

Stocks are on the decline this morning and the drop picked up steam as an employment report showed a drop in jobs … even thought a modest gain was expected.  While this normally would lead the Fed into “rate cut mode” … there is also inflation to worry about … as “higher for longer” certainly seems to define the stubbornness of inflation remaining above the Fed’s target.

And then we have oil prices … and, oh boy do we have oil prices.

The skirmish in the Mideast (I don’t think the U.S. has officially declared a war) has driven oil prices the highest they’ve been in a few years and gasoline (“price at the pump”) is facing a related increase.

But it is not a gain of 10% or even 20% that has people overly concerned … but the comment by Qatar energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, where he pointed out that “if this war continues for a few weeks, GDP growth around the world will be impacted.”  Meanwhile, if this wasn’t enough, he also provided an even more worrisome statement, giving the view that a spike to $150/barrel could “bring down the economies of the world!”

After reading this, I also am loading up on aspirin … and maybe Tums.

The problem we investors face, of course, is that we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes as different news channels give different accounts … and we have morphed into a world where we don’t know which news organizations … or politicians, for that matter, to trust.

And market forecasters … pundits … experts (claimed) … lead us to believe we should make a quick and decisive move … one way or the other … even though many studies show trying to time markets is futile and often quite costly.

I don’t mean to discount the advice read online from responsible sites (not counting Facebook or Instagram) … or on television … but I have come to an important realization:

… if market forecasters were as accurate as we are often led to believe, economists would live on private islands, rather than in television studios.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | March 6, 2026 As of 11:31 AM today … Oil prices continue to increase (along with local gasoline prices) as realization sets in that supply can plummet depending on the situation in the Mideast (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/iran-us-war-oil-prices-brent-wti-barrel-futures.html   … and Qatar put some unneeded fear into the market, claiming that if oil doubles in price (not outside of the realm of possibilities) global economies could suffer (DailyMail) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-15620643/Qatar-warns-oil-double-150-barrel-bring-economies-world.html   … while adding to investor angst was this morning’s report on jobs … as the unexpected decline added to investor concern (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/06/february-2026-jobs-report.html   A growing number of people are using AI … and seeming pretty smart … though the words (and sometimes thoughts) are not there.  Does intelligence really matter anymore? (BigThink) https://bigthink.com/business/why-your-iq-no-longer-matters-in-the-era-of-ai/   … even so, it is one thing to have a computer (using AI) write a note for you … but printing something out … does not have the same appeal as a hand-written note (Esquire) https://www.esquire.com/style/mens-accessories/a70519301/how-to-write-a-note-by-hand/   When you think of solar you might discount it, worried about how it might look on your roof … but hanging off your balcony?  Hmm … for some there is some interest (CanaryMedia) https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/balcony-solar-taking-state-legislatures-by-storm The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.