Good morning. Stocks are rising so far today as many begin to turn off their computers to get a head start on tomorrow’s Thanksgiving holiday. Markets are open all day today but close early on Friday … which kind of appears backwards to me … but I don’t make the rules. And what might be helping prop up the mood of investors? A few things. First, and probably the most important, Reuters is reporting chances now for a rate cut at the next meeting jumped to over 80% … quite a dizzying change from just a few days ago. We also have Atlanta GDPNow forecasting third quarter GDP gains to be around 4% … a slight drop from a previous forecast but still well above recession levels. One other interesting point comes out of JP Morgan as not only do they forecast a “base case” 2026 rise in the S&P Index to be above 10% from where it is today, but their view is for a gain of around 17% (plus dividends) if the Fed continues to cut rates. The big question … as it often is … has to do with drivers of the economy. According to Reuters, the market cap of AI firms is greater than 31% of the S&P … while earnings account for less than 21% of the index. Is this a warning sign? It depends on who you ask and how you ask it. And with retail up amid claims that those on Main Street are feeling inflation’s pinch, just who is doing the buying? The wealthiest … a demographic for whom inflationary pressures on basic items don’t even begin to make a dent. One other item that caught my attention (and shared below) is government plans on charging foreigners a hefty surcharge to enter many of our national parks … calling it “fair” since taxpayers help support these areas. Good? Bad? Frankly, I can understand the argument but really have concerns wondering if this is just the start. And a final comment for today … a good one … as I am repeating a story posted yesterday on new pills coming on board to help us lose a few pounds. Why mention this again today? The Trump Administration this morning announced a sharp price drop for diet shots and pills (once FDA approved) beginning next year when you buy them through … where else … Trump RX. As I’ve said before, I am very much looking forward to this and will probably start on the regimen once prices come down quite a bit. I certainly can’t start yet as I delay until these are more affordable, believing one thing … … it’ll be well worth the weight. Have a great day and a nice holiday, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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