Good morning. While anything can, of course, happen between now and market open, indication are stocks will open on a positive note with good news from Apple and Amazon setting the tone. And what seems like positive news coming out the Trump-Xi meeting …which calls for a one-year trade truce of sorts … is also putting more spring in the steps of investors. But still, the government shutdown hangs over our heads and it is starting to take a toll … not only on those groups clamoring for updated information upon which to make decisions (such as the Fed) but also on people directly affected either by not receiving a paycheck or no longer having access to programs which they heavily counted on for support. As often happens, the thought of this leads me down a rabbit hole … so here I am traveling as I share a story from yesterday. I was invited to participate in a commercial (web-based) for Comcast and jumped at the opportunity … even though I was “background” which typically means I have the same noticeability as a piece of furniture sitting in a corner and you’d never recognize I was in the shot at all. Regardless, I sat with two others during a break and conversations started. One of the “actors” was with the FAA until a few weeks ago. He told me he received a note informing him that he is considered “non-essential” and … well … shared that beginning with the next missed payday (today) he will be struggling financially … and looks for anything to help pay his mounting bills as he awaits his first unemployment check. He also shared that “essential” workmates … with delayed pay … are also in a bit of a bind … working without receiving a check (expected to eventually come). PNC Bank reports that a majority of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck and it is times like these that remind people that when times are good to put things away for a rainy day … as, for many, rain will eventually and unexpectedly arrive. Yes, I know I am off on a tangent but … hey … I’m on a roll. The other person was even more interesting as she (I guess around 25 years old) told me of her cannabis business … which immediately got my attention as much for her entrepreneurial spirit as what she is doing. Then I started drilling her with questions. Her marketing is “word of mouth” and she is the only salesperson. She then went on to tell me she sells “mushrooms that make you feel confident and good.” Of course, I asked about someone’s ability to drive after eating one of her items and she told me their driving would be much improved (somehow). Licensed with NJ? No. And she sells by mail and promotes over the internet. I briefly mentioned that New Jersey has some pretty strict laws and healthy fines at which point the conversation ended and the sudden quietness became deafening. I included an interesting story today about AI … as a family received a very high hospital bill and, plugging in the details of the invoice, was quickly able to identify overcharges and get their charge reduced. The other day, Jay Powell, when asked about similarities between AI and the “dot.com” era stocks gave the view that a major difference is many of the AI companies today have business models and earnings … while that previous bubble had many investments based only on ideas. In a similar vein, there have been many stories claiming AI will replace many jobs. While it is certainly true in some cases, the CEO of Nvidia smartly shares the belief that “you’re not going to lose your job to an AI, but you’re going to lose your job to someone who uses AI.” Seeing AI’s capabilities … even with its failures … does seem to greatly enhance productivity. Schools are starting to view AI as an aid, rather than as a competitor and its use in academics … not only by students … is growing. My view is that even people in the latter part of their prime working years … people like me … will benefit greatly by its use. … and taking the time to go to “openai.com” and just ask to do a silly task will amaze those who have yet to try it. As an example, I just asked it to “write a poem about the Fed and its inability to predict.” I had 5 full stanzas in less than 9 seconds titled: “The Oracle of FOMC” That’s it for now. I am no doubt boring you and boring myself so will end it here. Have a great Halloween … don’t eat too much candy … and have a great weekend. Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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