Good morning.

Stocks are a bit mixed at the moment with the Dow clinging to its all-time high and the S&P, apparently, not too far behind.

And what do major groups forecast as they look ahead?  A few are accepting we could be in a “bubble” (as investors and strategists always keep in mind that bubbles can eventually pop), Even so, Evercore ISI and Goldman Sachs point out that bubbles can keep expanding for quite a while with both giving the view the S&P can still move up sharply from here … even if AI does not continue to be the driving force it has been.

There was one interesting note as here we are in mid-September … and stocks are right now 3% above what Bloomberg had as its forecast for the end of the year.  Yet we keep reading and reporting on such forecasts, even if history has shown them to be as much guesswork as they are science.

And for the economic outlook for the third quarter which will end next week?  FactSet is looking for a sharp rise … showing the tariffs have yet to deflect economic growth.

But this does not mean we are out of the woods by any means … far from it … as OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) … which typically has a pretty good handle on things … gives the view that tariffs will eventually have an effect … and the U.S. economy will be hit especially hard in the coming year.

If this wasn’t enough, we need to keep in mind that there is yet another government shutdown possibility taking place at the end of next week.

Investor reaction to the potential shutdown of the government? Yawn.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has taken what is probably the most severe sanction ever recorded against a country by targeting Iranian diplomats … and you can be sure leaders in that country are quite upset.

Just announced by the White House … Iranian diplomats are no longer allowed to shop at Costco!

Oh, the humanity!

I don’t know what I would do, personally, if I wasn’t able to buy those enormous qualities at Costco … which I visit a few times a week

… probably lose some weight ….

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | September 23, 2025 As of 11:48 AM today: An important overseas organization (OECD) is firing warning flares about the U.S. economy with the view that tariffs will limit economic growth (QZ) https://qz.com/oecd-tariffs-economy-growth-forecast-stagflation   … but while some groups feel rate cuts are needed to keep the economy from slowing too much, the head of the St. Louis Fed feels the amount and degree of future cuts is limited (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/22/st-louis-fed-president-musalem-sees-limited-room-for-more-interest-rate-cuts.html   Looking for new employment?  From resume building to plain advice to even identifying opportunities, more are looking to AI for help (USAToday) https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/09/23/4-things-smart-job-seekers-ai/86242100007/   It is no secret that Europeans are thinner than Americans, but it is not just diet … but more about self-control over what, when and how much you eat (GaminTraveler) https://www.gamintraveler.com/2025/09/20/the-real-reason-europeans-are-thinner-than-americans/   Okay… now we are really hitting Iran where it hurts as it was just announced that the U.S. will bar Iranians from shopping at Costco.  That’ll teach ‘em. (Newsweek) https://www.newsweek.com/trump-admin-bars-diplomats-costco-2133797 The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.