Good morning. It’s a quiet day for market indexes, taking a rest after hitting recent new highs. Even so, the relative calm is not expected to last too long … as next week we have the Fed meeting … and that promises to be quite the market-moving-event … in one direction or another. Of course, their view … according to most economist reports this week … seems to have shifted away from being focused on inflation and, instead, doing what they can to keep the unemployment number in check … though we can expect Jay Powell to once again bring up concern over the effects of the tariffs. Ah, the tariffs … which have already brought quite a bit of revenue into our coffers. Yet … yet … yet … the gain in revenue has been offset … actually more than offset … by government spending … though it is early in the tariff game and we might eventually see even more improved revenue as a result. Still, Fox News reports this year will see the third-largest deficit in our history, exceeded only by debt seen in the Covid years of 2020 and 2021 … as it appears we will soon be above $37.5 trillion … only having reached $37 trillion just a smidgeon over one month ago. The problem with inflation … even as we have experienced outsized gains in the equity markets … is that it doesn’t affect all equally. And while the Yale-study article below points out negative short-term effects of tariffs (assuming costs to consumers rise), the conclusion made is it will greatly result in poverty increases among those unable to wait out the promise that we will all … eventually … be better off. There are some other interesting things seeing a bit of change … and one is the direct result of a declining population, as New Yorker Magazine feels that colleges are about to see a pretty sharp drop in enrollment … so if you are thinking of going back to school for another degree, now might be the time to get your application started … as you can be sure some will need to lower their standards. Speaking of lowering standards (or maybe even improving them) one country is making interesting use of AI … per the last article below … as one of their official ministers is … well … virtual. A decision-making politician that is not real? Hmm … let’s think about this a moment. Without bribes and lobbyists to affect a decision … and no scandalous background to worry about (we think) … and without a re-election concern … we might see other governments closely watching this to see how it all turns out. A virtual politician? Unable to be influenced? That could never work here. For it is outright un-American! Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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