Good morning. You know … I buy crazy things on occasion … and about a year ago I saw a “label maker” … cheap … on Amazon … picked one up … and tried it out by labeling a few things. Well, in anticipation of a trip with friends, I put labels on my golf equipment. I went golfing late yesterday and just received a phone call. I left my “range finder” behind … someone turned it in … and thanks to my labeling it will soon be back in its rightful place. So, I need to sign off early as I will be busy the rest of the day … labeling everything I can think of. Markets today have slight gains but so far August has been lackluster … and July’s records have yet to be revisited. Not helping is continued focus on the effects of tariffs … with uncertainty over resulting economic gains (as the White House claims) or a bit of economic hurt (for which the term “tariff pain” is now being tossed around by many economists). Not helping consumer comfort are articles such as those from The Economist (“American businesses are running out of ways to avoid tariffs”) or The Conversation (“It might seem like Trump is winning his trade war. But the US could soon be in a world of pain”). These types of views might be why Mark Zandi … renowned Moody’s Chief Economist … is sounding a not-so-loud alarm that in the face of higher inflation and a weakening jobs market, we may be on the brink of recession. The problem? Trying to time markets based on these views. If you recall, there were tons of economists calling for a recession in 2022 … which was quickly amended to calls for a “soft landing” when disaster did not materialize … even in the face of “Economic Indicators” being more misleading than leading and an inverted yield curve. We even had the Fed panicking by raising rates by 75 basis points (0.75%) four consecutive times … and now leave it to history to let us know the success … or failure … of these moves. Meanwhile, for Tesla lovers (of which I am one) Elon Musk says an “upgraded” self-driving improvement is coming out as soon as next week. I don’t know. There are so many claims that this is not working as well as it should (yes, with a few reported devasting accidents) but I have been quite satisfied with self-driving when I’ve used it … even though I do find myself switching to manual whenever I am bearing down on some tractor trailer on a highway. Will Robotaxis ever reach the mainstream? I think they will … but exactly when is the bigger question. On a final note for today, a few companies in Denmark came up with an idea that other communities might want to adopt. It seems that with “CopenPay” people that come to the city are rewarded with a free drink by picking up litter or get free ice cream if they opt to take public transportation to a museum. While it might not work as well here (I suspect the honor system might fare better in Scandinavia), it is something a local shop might want to try. Pick up litter along Lancaster Avenue in Wayne? Get a free slice of pizza. Something to think about. Okay, I need to drive to this place to pick up my range finder. It’s a great little course and the people are so friendly but a little weird. I almost hit a guy with a drive yesterday and he just waved his arms … … giving me half of a peace sign. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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