Good morning.

The market is rebounding from Friday’s jobs-number-related decline as the probability of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting (according to CME) has jumped to over 83%!  Helping this is the surprise announcement that one voting member is retiring early … allowing the President to nominate a replacement well before that next FOMC September decision.  Meanwhile, it is highly expected that the new Fed governor will be in favor of the rate cut wanted by the President … even as the term “independent” begins to lose its stature.  As an aside, the potential appointee needs confirmation by the Senate … so expect some fireworks ahead.

Meanwhile, this is not the only major change going on in Washington … far from it … as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (“BLS”) Commissioner was fired and the President pointed to those disappointing numbers as being “rigged.”  Of course, even saying the numbers were falsified results in a bit of an issue … as the question comes up as to whether data put out by the U.S. government … both historical and future … are able to be trusted with as much confidence as they had been in the past.

On top of this, we still have the inflation numbers to deal with.

Who reports inflation numbers?  Well, this also comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics … and if there is any change in the calculation of PPI (Producer Price Index) or CPI (Consumer Price Index) … will this also be questioned?

Somehow … and quite remarkably … all this has pushed tariff news to the side for now … but even here there is a lot going on.

The President announced more severe tariffs on India … due to their purchase of Russian oil … and this is … not surprisingly … being met with a great deal of disappointment and pushback from India.

But there might be some positive tariff news … as Bloomberg reports the Swiss are coming back to the negotiating table … and CNBC reports the EU is delaying retaliatory tariffs until early next year to allow for constructive trade talks.

That about wraps it up for today.

I’m heading to Costco to pick up a support animal, for I’ve decided the best support animal to calm me down amid all this madness is a chicken …

… a rotisserie chicken

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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A Look At The News | August 4, 2025 As of 11:57 AM today: The recent jobs report was disappointing … and the revisions shocking.  But will a new leader make numbers more accurate … or allow them to look more favorable no matter what? (Barrons) https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-orders-firing-bls-chief-cf0a8b86   As the firing of the messenger … in concert with the appointment of a new Fed governor … may give the President a bit more control over departments once viewed as independent (USAToday) https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/08/01/federal-reserve-governor-kugler-resign-trump-vacancy/85481184007/   Sorry environmentalists … the fossil fuel industry is not going away anytime soon (or ever) as groups like BP are stepping up their game with more major discoveries (TheGuardian) https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/aug/04/bp-makes-major-oil-and-gas-discovery-off-coast-of-brazil-santos-basin   Now this really caught my eye … as the claim is movement towards and ice cream that doesn’t melt. Other than “tasting like mashed potatoes” it seems like a success (BBC) https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20250801-the-quest-to-make-an-ice-cream-that-doesnt-melt   Following years of reading how video games are detrimental to development, now comes one study claiming a boost in IQ for many of these gamers (ScienceAlert) https://www.sciencealert.com/playing-video-games-has-an-unexpected-effect-on-kids-iq-study-discovers   … but let’s not go too crazy with letting machines take control.  After all, it could lead to the end of civilization (TheTimes) https://www.thetimes.com/us/news-today/article/why-how-ai-lead-end-humanity-nx8zjhgft The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.