Good morning. I don’t know … I saw a news article early this morning mentioning stocks were poised to drop at the open. After I realized the decline was only around 0.2% (equating to a minor hiccup) I just had to wonder if the article was written by a real person … or was AI-generated … as it is getting increasingly difficult to tell the difference lately. While the Senate battle over the “big, beautiful bill” rages on … amid some changes and quite a bit of public unpopularity … the bigger story of the day might be comments of Fed Chairman Powell speaking at an Economic Central Bank forum in Portugal, as Reuters reports that while he claims more data is needed before making a rate decision, he has left open the possibility (however slight it may be) that a cut might come as soon as July! It is important here to keep in mind there is a bit of a summer break and after July 31, no meeting is scheduled until mid-September … so a decision made too early … or too late … could have an unintentional effect. Meanwhile, the Fed Chairman might have just poked the President with a stick (intentional or not) as the claim is made Powell said rates would probably already have been cut if it wasn’t for the uncertainty caused by the tariffs. Jumping back to the Senate vote for a minute, Tesla stock is getting knocked around today as the soap-opera-like battle between the President and Elon Musk is getting more aggressive … as removal of breaks for electric vehicles (“EVs”) are planned and Elon’s claims of additional U.S. debt levels if the bill is passed has resulted in a public comment that deporting this South African might certainly be something under consideration … even though he is a U.S. citizen. Sorry for the run-on sentence. I’ll blame the caffeine. Speaking of coffee: during the long drive from Charlottesville that I mentioned yesterday … I did what I often do … stop, when tired, to get a favorite drink from Starbucks (Triple Venti, Caramel Macchiato) which really perks me up and keeps me awake. 3 stops for coffee … $26. Wow. What brings this to mind is the article included below in which quite a few young adults are taking on a second job … not to save for the future but to pay off non-education debt. My kid is asking me to help him get a credit card and I do recognize the need … but I find myself terrified he will fall into the “live for the moment” trap … buy items on impulse … like his dad … and put himself in a bind when it comes time to pay the piper. Why do I worry? We stopped at a Chick-fil-A the other day and were invited to “eat now, pay later” … which intrigued me … so curiosity forced me to look into it. It seems the company behind it will charge a $1-$3 fee if used only one time and generously the “Klarna” site claims there will “not be a late fee if card paid on time” (which completely destroys my understanding of what a late fee happens to be) and for those carrying interest, there should be no worry. The APR is only 35.99% for some. What? Okay, I already have run off on another tangent and will discuss tomorrow some jobs numbers that came out after I started writing … as a report on job openings showed a surprise jump in May even as fewer hirings were made. On a final story for today, a new tariff situation has come up … this time with Japan. It seems there is a shortage in the important staple of rice in the Japanese market yet, while they do import rice from the U.S. the President claims it isn’t enough and are threatening them with new tariffs if they don’t pick up the pace. Is there any difference in the quality and taste of rice grown in Japan vs. the U.S.? I’m not sure … but maybe the Senate will have a say … and include another cute name in the BBB (“Big, Beautiful Bill”) about this … … no doubt tempted to refer to it as … “The Equal Rice Amendment.” Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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