Good morning.

Stocks are holding on to gains this morning as the S&P and Nasdaq are within 1% of revisiting their all-time highs … even as the Conference Board reported a surprise pullback in June’s Consumer Confidence Index showing an unexpected negative decline.

Fed Chairman Powell is finishing up testimony today on Capitol Hill and is expected to continue stating his plan is to wait on a rate drop … even though his view appears to be softening … as the Fed suspects both inflation and unemployment will rise as we near the end of the year as the economy certainly has taken on some “tariff risks.”  Even so, Bloomberg reported there might be a bit of contentious debate … not on the economy, but surrounding the Fed’s plan to spend up to $2.5 billion to renovate its offices … and the NY Post reported one ex-official of accusing the department to be ‘… behaving like French royalty” while one college professor wondered why they are building “… the Palace of Versailles on the National Mall.”

In a bit of positive news … which is always welcome … BofA Securities is raising its view of economic growth bringing the U.S. to 1.6% for the year and global growth a bit higher at 3%.

Still, the tariffs are expected to eventually have an effect.  One reason given as to why we have seen inflation so “tame” (my word) is companies have been slow to raise prices in order not to lose market share … but BofA reports this should find its way into prices as we step deeper into the year.

There is one other item that might concern a few traders as we move closer to July 9 … and that is the “deadline date” Donald Trump has given for the U.S. and EU to come to an agreement on tariffs … which could revert to a painful number if nothing is agreed upon by then.  So far, the EU claims there has been no change in their plan to “retaliate” if the original Trump plan is put into place.

So for those who thought summer would be calm … we might have a bit of fireworks two short weeks from now.

That about wraps it up for today as markets continue to hold on to slight early gains.

Meanwhile, I just noticed someone attached a defibrillator on the wall of a conference room I just walked into.

Ugh.

Defibrillators repulse me.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | June 25, 2025 As of 10:11 AM today: Defense companies might get a boost from NATO announcement where allies increase defense spending to 5% of GDP even though it is only a “target” to take effect by 2035 (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/25/nato-allies-agree-to-higher-5percent-defense-spending-target.html   … but one thing being targeted is the Waymo self-driving vehicles in certain neighborhoods as noises emitted when car is backing up is bothering those living near charging stations (Newser) https://www.newser.com/story/369476/protesting-residents-resort-to-stacking-the-waymos.html   Have you changed any overseas travel plans this summer due to concerns?  Nervousness over safety, delays and government action are resulting in some deciding to stay local (StudyFinds) https://studyfinds.org/americans-thinking-twice-about-traveling-safety-fears/   In a shocking claim … reports are coming in that microplastics (with health effects yet to be known) are more prevalent in bottles made of glass than plastic ones (NYPost) https://nypost.com/2025/06/22/health/glass-bottles-found-to-have-five-to-50-times-as-many-microplastics-as-plastic-bottles/   When deciding on interior paints for your home, how important is color?  In an interesting study, certain colors could help increase the offering price (Veranda) https://www.veranda.com/decorating-ideas/a65061004/paint-colors-to-add-home-value-zillow-2025/   What is the one vital thing a leader must have?  Followers, of course … and in order to get people to see you as a great leader there are certain kindness traits desired (Inc) https://www.inc.com/jessica-stillman/3-types-of-kindness-you-need-to-become-a-truly-great-leader/91200940 The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.