Good morning. Well, the House approved what has been propagandized as the “big, beautiful” bill …and while there is no doubt it is certainly big, whether it is beautiful rests in the eye of the beholder. Holders of U.S. debt … in the form of bonds … certainly might not think so. What’s the big deal? Well … Moody’s recently expressed a concern that tax breaks will be much greater than revenues taken in … and the near-$37 trillion-dollar debt will worsen in the coming years. While hope was that reducing government waste would deflect this a bit, some of the “savings” from that appears to most negatively affect those on the lower rungs of the economic ladder. What ends up happening is we are not robbing Peter to pay Paul … we risk taking from both. Will the Fed come to the rescue? They may have to, if the view of Morgan Stanley Research comes true … as this group expects Consumer Spending will slow sharply later this year as tariffs gather steam. One of my concerns has been slowing population growth in the U.S., as the rate of births is sharply below our replenishment rate. There is now likelihood that anyone … I mean any citizen (however that ends up being defined) … giving birth over the next few years will receive $1,000 deposited into a “Trump Account” (might as well get your name on everything) to help them along. I know this sounds cynical with the way I phrased it, but I have long been an advocate of something along these lines brought up by investor Bill Ackman who proposed a retirement fund be set up at birth (at around $7,000 each) … never to be touched until age 65. The math on his plan works well. The problem I have with either of these is concern there will be so many changes made by Congress along the way that the original intent fades away. Okay, enough of that. I also found an interesting note from Arbor Research, claiming the share of homes less than 1500 square feet jumped to the highest level in 10 years. I don’t know what you’ve seen, but I find many of the “tiny homes” recently touted are quite amazing … leading me to think I’d like to put one in my yard (which I would find much more comfortable that the doghouse to which I am often relegated). Meanwhile, I am busy today as I need to figure out what to tell a friend of mine. I promised him I would listen to an audio book, and we would discuss it this weekend when we were both finished. And I know he completed it. Well … I am trying to find a good way to tell him I accidentally erased the audiobook … for I know I’ll never hear the end of it. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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