Good morning. We have two sides looking at the recent tariff pullback with views that are, possibly, politically motivated. One group claims that the president “blinked” in the standoff with China, implying admission that the tariffs had gone too far … while another group claims it part of a bigger, well-intentioned strategy which will lead, eventually, to achieving the oft-stated goal of more manufacturing in the U.S. I have no idea what to think … as I am just grateful that the market decline has reversed and we can now focus on other important things … like Major League Baseball’s change in who is eligible for the Hall of Fame. More on that in a minute. Stocks opened with a slight gain this morning and once-loud calls for recession are being reduced to whispers … and powerhouses such as JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Yardini Research lowered the odds in light of the reduction in tariff escalation. Still, NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) reports small business optimism declined for a fourth straight month, showing concern still exists, but this survey was taken prior to the recent tariff delay. And the Fed? Oh, the Fed … one month away from their next meeting while trying to assess the recent slowdown in inflation while attempting to figure out if a long-awaited cut will cause inflation to spike. But one group of buyers do not seem to be just sitting on the sidelines … homebuyers … as CNBC is reporting a jump in mortgage demand with the inventory of available homes (finally) on the rise. Hmm … now for Major League Baseball. I may have to look up the definition of the word “permanent” as the MLB announced that “permanent ineligibility” as punishment on some players who did what was considered harmful to the game … ends at death … and deceased players are now eligible for the Hall of Fame. This is resulting in some fans shouting, “nonsense” … including me. Hate mail is expected. While Pete Rose was a great player, a long-understood rule in baseball … MLB Rule 21 … posted in every clubhouse … reads: “Any player, umpire, or Club or League official or employee, who shall bet any sum whatsoever upon any baseball game in connection with which the bettor has a duty to perform, shall be declared permanently ineligible.” Evidence showed that Pete Rose not only bet on games in which he played, but also on games in which he managed with allegations that, while he never bet on his teams to lose, would get inside dirt from opposing managers (injured players etc) and use that information for his benefit. For years, he played the game of deny, deny, deny … finally admitting breaking this sacred rule and agreeing to a permanent ban. With today’s ease of gambling … something very concerning at the college level … the MLB feels changing this ban to only last through your lifetime is punishment enough … and players will not dare enrich themselves by placing wagers. Wanna bet? Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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