Good morning. Of course, it is just my pessimistic opinion, but I suspect we may be about to enter an interesting season that I will officially call “The Summer of Want.” With the onset … and continued threats … of tariffs … some shipments from China have been cancelled. Keeping in mind (according to CNBC) 37% of all apparel imports … and 58% of all footwear imports … come from China … the “supply chain” would certainly be challenged once panic shipments placed and received in the last few months dries up. And this is where Americans might finally sit up and take notice … even to a larger degree than price complaints. Sure, this is my own spoiled opinion … but I find few things frustrate me more as going to Costco and finding a beloved product is no longer on the shelves. We may just have to get used to this if things are not resolved soon. Meanwhile, stocks are little changed today, following three days of advance as tariff discussions right now appear to be in some sort of holding period … as having no major announcements one way or the other seem to have dialed down the thermometer a bit, calming some nerves. But there is increasing complaint that the administration unintentionally (giving them the benefit of the doubt) may have given major investors an inside edge by telegraphing pending announcements before public dissemination. Even so, a major move that could make this forgivable in the world of public opinion is the president claiming he would sign a bill forbidding “congressional stock trading” … though you have to wonder why he just wouldn’t come up with an executive order … as it is doubtful that many members of congress would want to end their ability to take advantage of their “inside” information. Such a move, I suspect, would be widely applauded … though it has been discussed and complained about for years, with little action taken. I attended an industry event last evening and listened to a panel which sang the praises of the increased ability of people to “bet” on games they are watching on TV. The opinion was mentioned that it raised money for states (as they get a “piece of the action”) and gets people more interested in watching whatever sport for which they placed a wager. Even so, comments were not entirely rainbows and sprinkles as pointed out were issues associated with college sports … and the temptation among participants … and classmates … to wager on an outcome. While betting has become incredibly commonplace, one thing not really discussed is the true effect on society … for with so many supposedly living “paycheck-to-paycheck” there is nothing to stop a person from betting grandma’s medicine money on the Jets to win on any given Sunday (using this, since it is the perfect example of a longshot). Okay, that will wrap it up for today as we head into the weekend hopeful that the tariff situation with China (and others) gets closer to resolution. Bloomberg reported the president as saying a deal may take a few weeks. We might not have that long. I’m heading to Costco now … … I’ll let you know. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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