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Good morning.

This crazy industry we are in sometimes treats bad news as if it is good news … and we might be in one of those times.  According to the National Federation of Independent Business (“NFIB”), small business optimism dropped in October and … as reported by Daily Shot: “businesses are increasingly reporting declining sales and earnings.”

Keep in mind that this is in the face of another NFIB report claiming the single biggest problem reported by small companies is not labor, nor politics, but financing and interest rates … which is at its highest level of concern among this group in well over a decade.

And why is this bad news considered … by some … to be positive? It could be that the evil workings of the Fed … battling inflation and out-of-control economic growth … could finally be hinting at success … leading many to view further increases in rates unlikely (for now, at least) and a few starting to see rates actually dropping sometime next year.

Will we see a recession?  Who knows?  Obviously, nobody … but I found the first article below interesting as UBS gives the view that any recession would be mild … and certainly not lead to a “great financial crisis” … as they gleefully jump on the bandwagon along with others seeing the rate cuts in 2024.

By the way, I was tied up yesterday as I worked with others at my firm volunteering for “Junior Achievement.”  My topic was understanding budgets, and I found the kids to be attentive, polite, smart … and I left with the good feeling that some of them might actually adopt some of the financially-responsible lessons taught via this great organization.

On a final note, we often focus so much on the top stories of the day that we miss interesting ones … that provide a vision of the future.

As Yogi Berra once said, “you can observe a lot just by watching” and there is one item that certainly bears observation.

The last story included below tells us some residents in Florida are now able to have their Chick-fil-A orders delivered by drone.  If this is successful (as I suspect it will be) this would be expected to expand to more of their locations, soon to be mimicked by competitors.

Yogi also said, “… if you don’t know where you are going … you might not get there.”

There are great advances being done right now in many areas, including in the fields of medicine and technology.

To see them … all we need to do … is pay attention.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
Vice President
Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC
610 Freedom Business Center Drive
King of Prussia, PA 19406
Direct: (610) 285-9905
cell: (856) 625-7915


A Look At The News | November 16, 2023

As of 11:15AM today

Is a slowdown coming … or has it already arrived?  It might not matter much … as one economist shares the view that it will not result in a crisis, by any means (CNBC)


… but what is reported to be a crisis is the rise of obesity in the U.S., as exercise is out of the question for many … and even walking is trending down (Axios)


… as the population seems to worry more about mental health than physical health.  So what do you do if you want to keep your brain stimulated?  Get a pet (PsyPost)


You just can’t win.  After years of citing natural gas as better for the environment when compared to coal, some are now pulling back on these claims … and worried about LNG (NewYorker)


While many consider the main benefit of AI to be verbal (helping students create great essays, making believe they are the author) … automation may offer the greatest benefit (AutoWeek)


… but there is one happening about to show us just how much (and how quickly) things are changing … as one Chick-fil-A is about to offer delivery … by drone (FoxBusiness)


The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.