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Listen to the latest episode of the Emerald Wit & Wisdom Podcast (12/07/23)

 

Good Morning.

Markets opened lower this morning as the Fed countdown continues as we tiptoe closer to tomorrow’s press conference.  Expectations are muted … as thoughts of a great number of rate cuts happening during 2024 seem to have disappeared in the face of continuing inflation.

Not helping matters is a sudden surge in gas prices … which, according to CNN, are up on a year-to-year basis for the first time since late last year. Of course, this not only takes away from disposable income but increases inflationary pressures as well.

In recent years a few have been able to shrug off higher costs because they received higher wages.  This has been of stated concern to Jerome Powell but the second article below tells us wage growth might be slowing down at a rapid pace.

Boy, there are so many hoping that interest rates decline … especially those waiting in the wings to buy a home … and disappearance of rate-cut hopes couldn’t happen at a more inopportune time … just as home builder confidence was improving and buyers seemed to be moving back into the housing market.  Listings for this time of year, according to Redfin, are the highest they’ve been over the last few years … even as prices jumped almost 5% from one year ago.

One question remains for us dreamers.  Let’s say … rates do come down … affordability improves … and those who have been in their homes (trapped in low mortgages?) finally decide to either downsize or just sell and move to a different location … will we then see an absolute flood of homes on the market which a supply-side economist might assume would drive down prices?

And what about office space?  It seems there is less need as Axios reports occupancy remains at 60% of “pre-Covid” levels. With leases coming up for renewal, you can be sure CFOs will be contemplating the wisdom of reducing their office footprint or even proposing to landlords that leases be reduced when it comes time for renewal.

Sorry for the focus on real estate this morning … but it does affect many things and is so greatly impacted by Fed actions.

That about wraps it up for today … as I must take my computer into the shop.

I was listening to music on my laptop and it keeps playing the song “Hello” over and over.

Maybe that’s because it’s a Dell.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

A Look At The News March 19, 2024

As of 11:58AM today

A thought is the Fed could be cutting fewer times than expected … as the economy continues its positive advance (CNBC)

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/19/fed-could-cut-rates-fewer-times-than-expected-as-economy-keeps-growing-according-to-cnbc-survey.html

 

… and one thing often mentioned as a Fed concern was the fast pace of wage growth … but this is slowing down … rapidly (FoxBusiness)

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/wages-us-are-falling-striking-pace-indeed-says

 

One of the “fad diets” of recent years has been intermittent fasting … but while many claim success this brings along its own risks (Heart.org)

https://newsroom.heart.org/news/8-hour-time-restricted-eating-linked-to-a-91-higher-risk-of-cardiovascular-death

 

… and for many who have had a colonoscopy … the preparation is often seen as the worst part.  But is that liquid only diet the night before necessary?  Maybe not (StatNews)

https://www.statnews.com/2024/03/19/colonoscopy-preparation-liquid-only-diet-data-gastroenterologists/

 

One of the biggest issues among the elderly is loneliness … but this is also a problem for those middle aged.  Why is this … and does Europe offer a solution? (AOL)

https://www.aol.com/lifestyle/why-middle-aged-americans-lonely-130030488.html

 

An increasingly popular item is a new ring that actually gives health feedback … but does Apple have one in the pipeline? (Geeky-gadgets)

https://www.geeky-gadgets.com/apple-smart-ring-details-revealed/

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The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.