Good morning:.
Stocks are bouncing around this morning … now slightly positive … as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh appeared to give an indication at Jackson Hole that the Fed may not be done raising rates in its effort to rein in inflation. Why do I use words such as “appear” and “may?” The new Chair seems quite careful about his wording and, according to Associated Press, “doesn’t want to provide … ‘forward guidance’ about whether the Fed will hike or cut rates of stay on hold …” … as (according to Warsh’s statement made in the past) it limits the Fed’s “flexibility.” At the same time, he pointed out that the Fed will achieve its 2% goal. When? How? That remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, we are 18 days from the next Fed meeting and 67 days from the midterm election … so it should be an interesting couple of months.
The Iran skirmish … war … or whatever you choose to call it … is now entering its seventh month … and uncertainty remains over whether or not the Strait is freely open for transport. The Trump administration says it is “demined” and fully open for business … while Iran claims it is closed. Information from the Hormuz Strait Monitor reports 12 ships traveled through in the last 24 hours … so it seems both sides are partially right … and partially wrong … with their claims.
The Canadian situation remains quite troubling, and Economist Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Asset Management gives the view that there might be “permanent repercussions” … which is quite logical as Canada will, no doubt, investigate working with other trading partners who are … how should I put this … not so temperamental. At the same time, the number of Canadians planning to head to Florida is reported to be greatly reduced … affecting those renting homes and stores counting on them to buy goods … with the hope being that the anti-U.S. view (not helped by the attempted renaming of a lake) is only temporary.
That about wraps it up for me today as I have other things to attend to.
My driveway needs resealing … and … get ready for this … the quote given was $8,000 (which is ridiculous and the guy was lucky I didn’t have a bat in my hands). Meanwhile, the electrician is here right now … telling me he needs to do a complete rewiring. And he just came in my office telling me he found a “spider infestation” that I should be sure to take care of (and, admittedly, I won’t be able to sleep until it is done).
Home ownership costs never freaking ends.
I really need the market to hold up.
… just a while longer
… at least until these bills are paid.
Have a great day,
Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA
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