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Good morning:.

The employment number (57,000 jobs created in June) that came out this morning was not brutal … it was worse than that.  Sure … we could shrug off the “miss” … and claim the analyst consensus being off by 53,000 is an outlier … but that would ignore two “revisions” in previous reports … and here the numbers were even more shocking.

It was back in April when almost 200,000 jobs were said to have been created. This was just reduced by 31,000.  And May … seen as a good month … had its total reduced by 43,000.

And now this.

The Fed … able to cut rates in the attempt to help employment … or raise rates to combat inflation … is right now stuck in the middle … though the recent claim is they will battle inflation first … even as Daily Shot reports “rates markets continue to discount more than one hike in 2026.”

There is an interesting situation with nearby trading partners as there was an agreement between the U.S., Mexico and Canada orchestrated by the Trump Administration during Trump’s first term and at the time was called “the best agreement we’ve ever made.”

Meanwhile … an opinion changed and while the deal is scheduled to run until 2036, ABC News is quoting an administration official as saying this doesn’t mean we have to wait until then to end the agreement … and the president can cancel it “should he see fit” … leading some to wonder if any treaty or deal is safe … since sides can seek change long after … or maybe not so long after … the ink is dry.

The temperature over the next few days promises to be punishing and with a heat index of 108 degrees, any hope to golf today has … evaporated.  This kind of bothers me as I just got my game to where I wanted it to be … and I am afraid if I don’t play for a while, any gains will disappear.

What, however, is not disappearing are stock market gains … as markets have all but recovered from a recent pullback and the Dow hit a new intraday high earlier today.

Investors have, for the most part, had a very good first half of the year and I just reviewed numbers put out by AJO Vista (disclaimer: an Emerald company) that showed the S&P’s total return was up almost as much in the first half of the year (10.21%) as it historically returned over an entire 12 months (10.7%).

Here is hoping you enjoy the upcoming weekend as we celebrate 250 years of greatness …

… with hope and confidence of 250 more.

Have a great holiday weekend,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

New and want to subscribe to Wit & Wisdom? Subscribe here   A Look At The News | July 2, 2026 As of 11:32 AM today … U.S. employment gains for the month of June came in quite a bit below analyst forecasts … and revisions of previous months told an equally bad tale (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/02/jobs-report-june-2026-.html   … but working or not, everyone likes to save money … and Amazon Prime members are able to reduce the price they pay for gas, according to this article (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/select/amazon-offering-50-cents-off-gas/   It’s pretty hot out there, and while some will try to brave the elements it is important to recognize humidity could make it seem even hotter.  Her are some tips for you cool readers (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2026/07/02/nx-s1-5878429/heat-wave-stroke-exhaustion-prevention-safety   With the population decline … rather the declining percentage of young people … some colleges have closed … and the math supporting survival is not favorable (Time) https://time.com/article/2026/07/02/the-business-model-of-colleges-is-broken-it-s-about-to-get-worse/   If you have been in a supermarket lately you will have, no doubt, been shocked by the price of a decent steak. Unfortunately, the prices don’t look like they will drop any time soon (Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/business/us-beef-prices-stay-red-hot-summer-cookouts-2026-07-02/   … but making the switch from hamburger to hot dog might cost you in the long run. No, not financially … but with your health … so don’t overdo it (TheBrigherSide) https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/fourth-of-july-warning-9-out-of-10-americans-are-unaware-of-hot-dog-health-risks/ The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.