Good morning.

Jerome Powell was only one year old when the movie, The High and the Mighty, was released … but recently he must feel like star, John Wayne, as the plane he is flying has limited instruments, a foggy windshield and a crew that doesn’t seem to uniformly agree with the First Officer’s decisions.  Such is the 2025 Fed, limping towards the next meeting, hoping the thrust supplied to the U.S. economy is enough to get them to safely land the plane.

Meanwhile, the S&P is in positive territory so far today even as its largest member (Nvidia) is having a bad day … following a competitor’s announcement that it will be selling its own chips

… leaving some to uncomfortably admit that Nvidia leadership position could eventually be challenged.

While investors have been laser focused on the AI space (with good reason, due to strong market returns) some are starting to realize there is a non-tech portion of the economy and see the patient there has been running a slight fever.

As the numbers we’ve seen of late indicate everything is fine … many get a different view once they bring their purchases up to the checkout line.  U.S. consumer confidence fell to its lowest level in seven months and while indications are that retail numbers are holding up, most reports are in dollars … and so even fewer units sold might appear positive.

The realistic result is … your paycheck may appear smaller because … well … it kind of is.

I also came across some interesting articles on the Thanksgiving holiday … including one (below) giving ideas for appetizers that are sure to please.  And dessert?  I’ll probably cheat a little and pick up one of those enormous apple pies from Costco.

On a related note, holiday traffic promises to be brutal … and if you try to get anywhere Wednesday afternoon … or even today … it may be a losing battle as you will probably face a ton of other travelers with the same idea.

And once Thanksgiving is over?  I don’t know … maybe it will be time for one of those weight-loss drugs … I have to think about it.

I do have a tendency to overeat during Thanksiving … and I blame my family holiday motto:

… leftovers are for quitters.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | November 25, 2025 As of 11:44 AM today: There is hope … if September numbers are accurate … that inflation is starting to flatten out but November numbers won’t arrive for another 3 weeks and that will be a big tell (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/core-wholesale-prices-rose-less-than-expected-in-september-retail-sales-gain.html   … and while employment is also closely watched … an interesting development is a claim that “worker burnout” is on the rise … especially among young adults (EagleHillConsulting) https://www.eaglehillconsulting.com/insights/worker-burnout/   While quite a few Americans are jabbing themselves with the thought that “thin is in” … others await the arrival and FDA approval of new diet pills … and things look promising (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/11/25/nx-s1-5619816/obesity-pills-wegovy-semaglutide-orforglipron   With Black Friday sales going on this week, one thing you might want to pick up is a warm coat as the Polar Vortex is back … and many will experience the chill (CBC) https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/polar-vortex-return-9.6988055   … meanwhile, if you are traveling over the holiday there are good times to leave and absolutely horrible times.  Make sure to plan accordingly (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/11/22/nx-s1-5617698/thanksgiving-travel-best-time-aaa   Looking for ideas to keep hungry and demanding guests at bay?  These ideas for appetizers might be worth considering (ImmigrantsTable) https://immigrantstable.com/19-thanksgiving-appetizers-that-keep-guests-happy/   The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.