Good morning.

Pre-opening numbers indicate stocks will begin the day little changed from last night … although the afternoon certainly could tell a different story.

Why?  Oh yeah … it’s Fed Day … and while a slight 25-basis point (0.25%) is expected, it is never a certainty and new FOMC participants might be clamoring for more (echoing the opinion of the President).

There will be another item many will be watching … dissent … as a big deal was made in July when 2 Governors on the FOMC panel did not agree with the “hold” decision … and publicly stated this.  Now … if the rate is cut by ¼ point … we might have 3 Governor “dissenters” … which has not happened since 1988.

As an aside, sorry for boring you further on this, we have had as many as 5 not agreeing with the Fed policy … but that includes both official “governors” (of which there are 7) and 5 rotating regional bank presidents.

If watching this afternoon … get your popcorn ready … which, by the way, is probably more expensive than it was following the last meeting.

The reason I bring that up is a report out this morning (included below) claiming grocery inflation is the highest it has been in quite a while … and this typically has a greater effect on those on the economic ladder who can least afford it.

Along these lines, a CNN article (also below) points out a recent drop in FICO scores due to delinquencies in auto loans, credit card repayments and personal loans are “more consistent with an economy in recession than one still in expansion” … which makes the job of the Fed even more challenging.

No matter how you phrase it, we have a trade war going on right now … and sometimes in a war … in fact, many times … bystanders end up being hurt.  And in today’s world, bystanders could be companies.

Such could be the case this morning as China announced Nvidia chips are outright banned from being shipped into the country. In fact, Beijing may be copying something from our own playbook with the claim that they would like everything made in their own country.

Imagine a world where all imports stopped and every country decided to only use things made within their own borders.

I may get some screaming at me, as I share my opinion.

… but I think, globally and domestically, everyone would be much, much worse off.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | September 17, 2025 As of 9:15 AM today: It seems likely that the Fed will “finally” announce a rate cut at today’s session, but is this bowing to political pressure?  That question will certainly be debated (NPR) https://www.npr.org/2025/09/17/nx-s1-5539555/federal-reserve-interest-rates-inflation-jobs   … but while investors may applaud the cut … not everyone feels the medium-term economic impact to be positive as one major house put out a warning (TheStreet) https://www.thestreet.com/fed/jpmorgan-issues-stark-warning-on-fed-interest-rate-cut-   Grocery inflation, of course, remains a concern … affecting those most who can least afford it … and the rate is the highest it has been in a couple of years (GroceryDive) https://www.grocerydive.com/news/grocery-inflation-food-prices-august-2025-cpi/760109/   … even so, one silver lining is that mortgage rates typically decline along with the Fed rate cut … and refinancing has jumped as those loans have gotten cheaper (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/mortgage-refinance-demand-spikes-nearly-60percent-as-interest-rates-drop-sharply.html   According to this article, some borrowers are having more difficulty in paying back loans … and FICO scores are dropping (CNN) https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/16/economy/debt-credit-score-student-loans   While tariffs are one thing … making your product more expensive to purchase which … according to economic theory … hurts sales.  But what if you are banned outright? Ouch! (FT) https://www.ft.com/content/12adf92d-3e34-428a-8d61-c9169511915c The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.