Good morning. A report on the economy, released this morning, is indicating a contraction for the first quarter of the year … and the calls for “recession” are once again becoming thunderous. A catalyst may, in part, be recent increases in imports – trying to get ahead of tariffs – but adding to this is uncertainty … which is showing up in droves. Following today’s market … which turned south immediately after the GDP announcement … is the realization that stocks will show a decline for the third consecutive month … which, this morning, the president blamed on the previous administration … equating economic downturn to the “Biden Overhang,” adding, “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s” pointing out … “when the boom begins, it will be like no other.” One other issue is a report by The Conference Board which showed a fairly large drop in consumer confidence … with expectations now at a 13-year low! While numbers are, of course, relative … and may have been too optimistic for a while … the concerning phrase on the Board’s website is notice that the present number is “… well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.” Ouch. I mean … ouch. Tariff concerns … along with worries over the “supply chain” … completely overshadowed a morning report showing improvement in inflation as CNN reports “inflation slowed sharply in March” … which in a more certain environment might be expected to have investors optimistic. Focus might soon turn towards the Fed meeting, scheduled to take place next week … as the president … after taking a break … seems to be trying to put Chairman Powell on the hot seat while claiming “he’s not doing a very good job,” and, in comparison, “I know much more than he does about interest rates” … causing some to wonder if Wharton Business School is about to see a sharp increase in applicants. That will wrap it up for today as I know I am getting a bit too cynical … which often happens when I see my portfolio get smacked around. To get out of my mood I think I’ll head out to this sushi place for lunch … as it always puts me in a better frame of mind. I have grown quite fond of the seaweed salad … yet constantly end up eating so much of it that I have become addicted … … to the point of which I may find the need to sea kelp. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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