Good morning.

I spoke with a friend of mine this morning who happens to be a pretty sharp analyst, and he summed up his view on keeping up with news coming out of Washington as “exhausting.”  Of course, there are other terms he could have added such as “confusing” and “contradictory” … but I’ll just go with exhausting for now as it is tiring to try to keep up with exactly what the administration’s plans and announcements are regarding tariffs, as every new comment or tweet just adds to the confusion.

For example, it was Friday night when U.S. Customs and Border Protection put out a note claiming electronics would be “exempted” from the recently announced tariff boost.  But over the weekend, Secretary Lutnick announced any reduction was only temporary and both he and the president said there were really no exemptions at all, as items were simply being moved into a different “tariff bucket.”

But any confusion by the public is no doubt, just a misunderstanding … as Peter Navarro announced the back-and-forth tariff situation is “unfolding exactly like we thought it would” and even though it seems chaotic, CNBC sums up him messaging that things are going “according to plan.”

MRB Partners put out a Bloomberg-assisted chart this morning showing how things perform under 4 scenarios:
Stagflation: Bonds and Equities both drop.
Recession: Bonds increase, Equities decline
Inflationary Expansion: Bonds decline, Equities increase
Low Inflationary Expansion: Bonds increase, Equities rise as well.

Even with any reprieve, strategists still appear to be raising the odds of recession in the U.S., but the game is now to figure out to what degree this has already been “priced in” to today’s stock prices … and this is “if” one actually does happen.  We also don’t know to what extent the Fed will be jumping into to pool … if at all.

Just two additional items this morning.

The second-to-last note below is extremely interesting as the claim is that, for the elderly, “fear of falling” increases the odds of falling by 60%.  What fascinates me about this is that the behavioral finance part of my brain equates this to investors … as fear of falling (portfolio) leads to actions which might increase the chances of a drop.

And tomorrow is Tax Day, but all might not be entirely problematic as many food stores are having discounts and giveaways to help relieve any pain.

… and as for me, I am staying home and making “muffins” … a word which has a double meaning for reading the word backwards exactly describes what you do

… the second you take them out of the oven.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

A Look At The News | April 14, 2025 As of 11:33 AM today: There are now exemptions on smartphones and electronics … but we might not want to plan too far ahead as this relief might only be temporary (TheGuardian) https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/14/trump-warns-exemptions-on-smartphones-electronics-will-be-short-lived-promises-future-tariffs-president-china   … and we are being told there is no confusion among those in the administration as things are … we are told … going exactly according to plan (USAToday) https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/04/13/tariffs-unfolding-exactly-like-we-thought-it-would-trump-advisor/83071820007/   How are CEOs reacting as they prepare for the year ahead?  Many don’t know what to think … have difficulty planning … and feel a recession will be here before the fall is out (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/14/more-than-60percent-of-ceos-expect-a-recession-in-the-next-6-months-survey-says.html   What is the utopian point of view?  Things would be made here in the U.S. … tariff-free … high quality … plentiful jobs.  But that might not be possible in many cases (Wired) https://www.wired.com/story/tariffs-small-businesses-why-make-things-in-china/   Is it possible to be too careful?  It seems that the more elderly people worry about falling, the chances increase that they will (NewAtlas) https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/falling-concern-risk-future-falls-elderly/   Tomorrow taxes are due … yikes!  But there are non-alcohol ways to relieve some of the pain as there are many food deals available (USAToday) https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/food/2025/04/14/tax-day-food-deals-2025/83027026007/ The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us. Emerald Asset Management PA, LLC | 717-556-8900 | 3175 Oregon Pike, Leola, PA 17540 Want to change how you receive these emails? You can unsubscribe from this list. ———————————————————————————- The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.