Good morning.

Another inflation number came in this morning and … while positive … it was not enough to bring investors back into the fold yet as major indexes are all down so far today as tariff talk continues to gain the attention around the globe.

Today’s skirmish (as if we need another one) is with the European Union, as in response to the steel and aluminum moves made by the administration, the EU has announced tariffs are being placed on beef and bourbon, poultry and motorcycles coming into Europe … and certain retailers are placing stickers on items favorable to manufacturers in their region. Meanwhile, imports of wine and other alcohol products from the EU might become prohibitively expensive … as the Trump Administration just threatened to boost the tariff on these items to 200%!  And so the battle continues.

While market reaction has been swift, the Treasury Secretary announced the administration is “… not concerned about a little market volatility.” To be frank, a little market volatility is quite habitual for stocks … and such declines occur every few years … but many are saying this recent smattering was not based on market fundamentals but, instead, due to self-inflicted wounds for which we are being told are necessary as … according to press secretary Levitt … they are busy “… bringing wealth back to America …” hoping people have the patience for its appearance.

Fortunately, there happens to be some good news.

While this one is minor, I was at Costco last night … and picked up 18 eggs for $6.79.  While this is certainly higher than it was a year ago, I didn’t feel this to be out of line … and certainly makes me question if the 50-cent per egg surcharge some are instituting is reasonable.

In addition to this, Bloomberg put out an interesting note with the view that “the worst of the stock correction may be over” … and while famed bull, Ed Yardini, lowered his year-end forecast for the S&P, his projection still promotes a decent rise from here … if (and this is a big “if”) any recession is mild and short-lived and the tariff war comes to a peaceful conclusion.  Two big “ifs” for sure.

Meanwhile, we have consumers to worry about … not only here (as they seem starting to cut back) … but Canadians are boycotting us … and some stores in the EU and Scandinavia are putting labels on items, promoting the buying of non-U.S. goods.

Lately you wake up in the morning wondering, “just who are we going to piss off next?”

Okay, that will wrap it up for me today as I head out to the store hoping to see the price of favorite items fall further.

Truth be told, I did expect the price of an egg to come down in March …

… I just didn’t expect it to be my nest egg.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com