Good morning. The S&P hit another intraday high before settling down a bit at the end of a week that seems quite positive for the U.S. market. Keeping in mind that while my opinions could be off base; it seems to me that jobless claims numbers (up this morning) should be ignored for a while … as the fires in California result in some temporarily losing employment … while the “rebuild” will find need for more workers – although the immigration crackdown might greatly slow down the time it takes to regain “normalcy.” Looking for a mortgage? According to Redfin, rates dropped below 7% but this is still higher than it was throughout most of 2024. Homes (looking at median days) are taking longer to sell … which could be an indication of being overpriced … and should result in forcing some sellers to bring their asking prices down to earth. But the rates might not drop much further … if “fund manager anticipations” are correct. According to BofA Global, fund manager belief on inflation shows the highest expectation in almost 2 years with only 7% feeling a drop in inflation will take place during the next 12 months, while optimism in rate cuts … according to DailyShot … to be “waning.” It is not only fund managers holding this same semi-pessimistic view as University of Michigan, well-known for measuring consumer sentiment, points out that 47% of consumers feel unemployment will rise over the next year (the highest degree of pessimism since the pandemic recession) and inflation expectation in the recent survey was sharply higher than produced even in the recent December study. That about wraps it up for today as I finish reading a report on how climate change might be affecting the animal population around the globe. Take the polar and grizzly bears for instance. It seems that food is becoming more scarce … and they are entering populated areas, causing people to be on high alert. They are leaving food out for the grizzlies … but with a high amount of anesthesia mixed in … … feeling there is safety in numb bears. Have a great day, Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com
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