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Listen to the latest episode of the Emerald Wit & Wisdom Podcast (06/12/24)

Good morning.

It is day one under a new administration and U.S. markets – up for the moment – are taking it all in stride. But … to steal from an old Wall Street saying … if we have a rising tide, it might not lift all boats … as some of the executive orders (of which there are many) are expected to influence quite a few.

Tariffs are the talk of the morning as CNBC claims investors are a bit relieved these are not taking immediate effect … but that doesn’t mean trading partners are comfortable by any means.  This resulted in me going online to figure out possible effects and I was surprised to learn the top country to which we export is Canada (followed by Mexico and China).  But I also had my eyes open concerning imports … as I always thought China was number one … by far … but in 2023, Mexico took over the top spot (with China next and then Canada).

So yes … while tariffs on imports might sell well to many listeners … results of such a move … especially in the face of possible retaliatory tariffs … will take some time to see if they are as beneficial as many assume.

Banc of America Global Fund Survey has an interesting result … as it shows the biggest perceived “tail risk” is not a trade war … nor is it an AI bubble … but the biggest market-moving concern is inflation resulting in the Fed actually increasing rates.  Yikes … not a pleasant thought to have at a time when the U.S. economy seems to be chugging along quite nicely.

I won’t get too much into the U.S. pulling out of the Paris Agreement (again) as I do have an admitted bias and try hard (unsuccessfully) to be opinion-neutral.  I read both sides of the climate change discussion (I won’t call it an argument) and just pray we are not making a mistake … as recovery gets harder with each passing missed hurdle.

That’ll wrap it up for me today.

I bet against the Eagles … and the Chiefs … and also placed a bet against Ohio State … so I have to get to work to make up for my losses.

Meanwhile, I look forward to next week’s games and just learned of an important announcement that should help my strategy.

The Buffalo Bills were just called for a Roughing the Passer penalty ahead of next week’s game in Kansas City.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

Have any questions? Please contact info@teamemerald.com

 

 

 

A Look At The News | January 21, 2025

 

As of 11:45 AM today:
It is hard to focus on just one topic stemming from Trump’s executive orders but one making headlines this morning is tariffs.  Markets were positive on delay … but what then? (CNBC)

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/20/stock-futures-rise-as-trumps-second-term-begins-live-updates.html

 

… for our neighbor to the north … which happens to be out top trading partner … is relieved things did not take effect immediately and have a couple of weeks to work things out (BBC)

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0m19l8d4ngo

 

One of yesterday’s major announcements was (again) planned withdrawal from the Paris Agreement … as global debate continues over greenhouse gases and responsibility (Axios)

https://www.axios.com/2025/01/21/us-paris-withdrawal-effects-second-time

 

… but it is hard to claim a warming world when temperatures in the U.S. are so frigid as a “once-in-a-generation” freeze takes hold in some areas (CNN)

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/21/weather/winter-storm-south-tuesday-hnk/index.html

 

Another withdrawal is from the WHO (World Health Organization) … which puts this group in a bind with the U.S. being the most prominent member (NPR)

https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2025/01/20/g-s1-42918/trump-world-health-organization-withdrawal

 

… meanwhile, the name game has already started and Ron DeSantis was quick to use “Gulf of America” in official documents (CBS12)

https://cbs12.com/news/local/florida-already-using-gulf-of-america-mexico-in-official-documents-ron-desantis-president-donald-trump-department-interior-state-emergency-january-21-2025

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The statements above are supplied for educational purposes only. The statements depict the viewpoints and opinion of the author and are not necessarily the views of Emerald Asset Management or its affiliates. The information described herein is taken from sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of such information is not guaranteed by us.