Good morning.

Investors woke to the news of possible breakout of a trade war … as actual percentages were put on possible tariffs … but no one is quite certain if these numbers are really etched in stone or conditional, based on actions by those targeted.

Right now, it seems that these tariffs have a chance of not happening (regarding the severity discussed) as historians and economists are quick to point out lessons of the Smoot-Hawley tariff proposals … which resulted in the Tariff Act in 1930 … blamed for worsening the Great Depression of that period.

Meanwhile, stocks are little changed as investors digest the information and how individual portfolio holdings might be affected.

Bloomberg came out with a comment on how economists see U.S. GDP in the coming years and the claim is the median projection (50% above/50% below) is around 2% GDP year-over-year growth all the way through the first quarter of 2026. Bottom line? No recession!  Scary top line? Economists … as we’ve seen … are often wrong.

Even so, Wells Fargo Research thinks GDP growth will surpass this view.

Is it too late to win the plastic pollution war?  It seems that way, as Daily Shot was mean enough to provide a chart showing how long it takes certain items to break down … with aluminum cans at over 200 years, plastic bottles at 450 years, plastic diapers at 550 years … and plastic bags up to 1,000 years.

The good news?  If you want to leave your grandkids something (and their grandkids) … buy some plastic items and leave them somewhere special with your name on the items.  They will … almost literally … remember you forever.

On a final note, an article claims you might gain as much as 6 pounds over the holidays … and one in four of us still carry the weight the gained from last year.

Ha! I have many of these people beat.

I am carrying Thanksgiving weight gain from 1985.

But it was well worth it

… it was a very good meal.

Have a great day,

Joseph G. Witthohn, CFA

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